ECB's upcoming tapering

ECB Needs To Build A Macroeconomic Narrative To Justify Upcoming Tapering

Tapering will come anyway, largely because of technical/ political constraints around QE. The ECB will still have to justify this with a macroeconomic narrative. This is what the ECB President has set out to do.However, experts at BoAML believe that what he said yesterday in Sintra central bankers summit is also consistent with a very slow exit.

ECB's NPLs burden

ECB faces the NPLs burden: over €900 MM, almost 9% of Eurozone GDP

The problem loans of the big banks directly under ECB supervision totalled close to 1 trillion euros at end-2015, although they declined to 921 billion in September 2016 (almost 9% of the euro area’s GDP), according to the data disclosed by Vítor Constâncio on February 3. But the problem is that this figure is not distributed homogeneously across the banks.

European economic growth

Europe: Out Of The Laboratory, Back To The Labyrinth

BoAML | The ECB has closed many doors in December. The 2015-16 strategy of monetary policy covering for fiscal loosening to facilitate structural reform has changed.We are back to national governments having to navigate through strained fiscal trajectories, leaving very little room for mistakes. Potential growth prospects are not great, not only in the periphery.


The Impotence of the Central Banks

Governments do not want to acknowledge that a Central Bank does not have the ability to bolster the economy. Monetarism has not worked. The massive purchase of corporate bonds by the Central Banks has not worked. They have been left alone to face the problem and they have failed. The solution is to activate demand and Central Banks cannot do this.


Central banks should reflect on monetary policy

J. L. Martínez Campuzano (Spanish Banking Association) | The BoJ has begun a period of reflection to try to answer the question of why expansionary monetary measures are not being reflected in higher inflation. I honestly believe that this is a reflection which other central banks should undertake. But, in the end, the easiest thing will always be to continue with more measures without a clear strategy of what their final objectives are.

ECB on inflation

TARGET 2: Capital Flight From Italy And Spain Continues

Miguel Navascués | Take a look at the outstanding balances in the ECB’s TARGET2 payments system, which maintains an up-to-date record of the debts and loans each country has with the other. As can be seen from the table below and the subsequent graphics, Italy, where the banks have 360 billion euros of doubtful loans, as well as Spain, have again begun to show signs of weakness.