MADRID | The Corner | Upcoming TLTRO in Sept 18 and Dec 11 will allow EZ banks to borrow an amount equivalent to 7% of what they currently lend to the private sector at 0.25% a year (excluding interbank loans and mortgages), breaking the vicious circle of high lending rates to companies, high credit risk and a sluggish economic performance, European Central Bank’s chief economist Peter Praet said on Wednesday.
MADRID | By The Corner | Corporate earnings season (2Q14) is about to start in Wall Street, with Alcoa opening the way and with the major American market indexes –Dow Jones and S&P 500- at maximum levels. The macroeconomic perspectives of the country will also help, especially after having overcome the impact of the weather on the GDP, as well as the certainty that the Western central banks are committed to support the economic recovery. Thus, investors expect that the official interest rates will keep at very low levels in relative historical terms for a long period of time.
SAO PAULO | By Marcus Nunes via Historinhas | That´s what Simon Wren-Lewis does in “Taylor Rules, the ZLB and Euro Diversity”: John Taylor originally suggested his rule as both a good guide to what central banks actually do and also one that “captures the spirit of the recent research”. It has been used ever since as a yardstick by which to measure monetary policy.
MADRID | By J.P. Marín Arrese | Mario Draghi unveiled the requirements to be met for drawing cheap money from the targeted long-term facility on Thursday. Those look extremely loose and scarcely demanding. Banks may cash up to 7% of their net lending to businesses and households in the auctions scheduled later on this year. A move that could lead to a massive €400 billion funding injection, should bidders make full use of their potential rights. Borrowing four-year tranches at interest rates so low as 0.25%, seems indeed an unbeatable incentive.
ZURICH | By The Corner | As expected, the ECB did not unveil any new policy measures on Thursday. Although the Bank maintains an easing bias, it signalled that it wants to wait and see how the monetary stimulus delivered last month unfolds. UBS’ base case scenario remains that ECB rates will stay on hold for the foreseeable future and that QE will not be deployed. The key news from ECB’s meeting was more of a technical nature.
MADRID | By Francisco López | The ECB President announced with fanfare last month a battery of measures to revive the credit in the EZ. The problem is that the open bar announced by Draghi won’t have an impact on loans until 2015 and, meanwhile, credit fall continues to accelerate in some peripheral countries, especially in Spain and Italy. There are those who believe that the latest data could force Mr Draghi to approve a direct debt purchase program before year’s end.
MADRID | The Corner | Swiss-based Bank for International Settlements (BIS) is concerned about a troubling disconnection between “markets’ buoyancy and underlying economic developments globally.” The international body representing central banks believes the risk of central banks normalizing monetary policy too late and too gradually shouldn’t be underestimated, pointing out that extremely accommodative monetary policy has a diminished effect over time. Meanwhile, the IMF has been asking to break the lethargy of the European economy with measures against low inflation for months with more stimulus.
MADRID | Bankinter Analysis | 3Q Perspectives. Economic cycle speeds up and, mostly, gains soundness and reliability. Global growth will consolidate in 2014/2015 by +3%/+4% with positive news for developed countries and less favorable surprises in emerging markets. Japan and India are the exception to this rule. Spain will also amaze and main economic risk will lie in regional regional integrity issues whose aftermath may be undervalued, regardless the final scenario.
MADRID | JP Marín Arrese | The revised growth figure for the US economy in Q1 comes as a nasty surprise. It has dampened market sentiment worldwide. Earlier assessments blaming bad weather the moderate setback no longer hold when faced with a downturn close to 3%. Even discarding a fallback into full-fledged recession, it undoubtedly points to a markedly weaker performance than expected. The Fed tapering strategy is confronted with a baffling dilemma.
ZURICH | By UBS analysts | On 5 June, the ECB delivered a comprehensive monetary policy package, comprising cuts in the refi rate (from 0.25% to 0.15%), the deposit rate (from zero to -0.1%) and the marginal lending facility (from 0.75% to 0.4%). The ECB also rolled out the ‘full allotment mode’ – the commitment to supply unlimited liquidity (against adequate collateral) at the refi rate – from July 2015 to December 2016, and it will inject liquidity by ending the sterilisation of the Securities Markets Programme (SMP) portfolio.