ECONOMY

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These are UBS’ rental growth forecasts for retail and office by country

MADRID | By The Corner | Real estate values are a function of cap rates (property yields) and income growth. In the tables following UBS illustrates their team’s rental growth forecasts for retail and office by country. The majority of markets are showing a modest improvement in rental growth with estimates more optimistic for San Franscisco and London office.



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Greece prepares to tap bond markets again

ATHENS | By Macropolis | After tapping markets in April for the first time in four years, Greece is considering another bond transaction, which could take place as early as next week, according to reports. The first bond issue on April 10 was a 3-billion-euro, 5-year note in a syndicated sale that was heavily oversubscribed. The yield was 4.95 percent.


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Global growth is back on track

LONDON | By The Corner | The final estimate of the Barclays global manufacturing confidence reveals another improvement in June, as they had initially expected, from -0.10 to 0.05, the highest level since December last year. As anticipated in the preliminary readings, the rise was driven by improvements in manufacturing activity in the US, Japan and China, where the trend in the forward-looking new orders component suggested it should last well into the second half of the year. At the same time, activity in the euro area showed further signs of momentum loss, with expansion weakening in all the big five except for Spain.


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Euro area June inflation should remain at 0.5% until year-end

LONDON | By Barclays analysts | Euro area “flash” June HICP remained unchanged at 0.5% y/y, in line with our and consensus expectations. Printing 0.51% y/y at two decimal places (very close to our 0.50% y/y estimate), today’s outturn is technically only very slightly higher than last month (0.49% y/y) and March (0.47% y/y). It remains nonetheless very weak indeed.


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Effects of the deflation on debt

MADRID | By Luis Arroyo | The Spanish National Statistical Institute has recently published May’s CPI. The chart shows the 0.1% annual variation with respect to May 2013. Such variations determine a curious outcome on the price level, as the second chart exhibits.


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GfK points to maintained strength in household consumption in Q2

LONDON | By Barclays analysts | Consumer confidence increased again in June, reaching positive territory for the first time since March 2005. The GfK consumer confidence index rose to 1 from 0 in May, in line with our expectations (consensus: 2). Improvements were generally broad-based, with ‘general economic situation over the last 12 months’ improving the most, up 2 points to -3.


Youth unemployment in the Middle East and North Africa

Whose Job Is Youth Employment in Africa?

SAN FRANCISCO | By Atul Singh via Fair Observer | With 61% of its population under 24, Africa’s greatest challenge is finding jobs for its youth. The continent needs to provide employment to 200 million people aged between 15-24. As per the World Bank, youth account for 60% of Africa’s unemployed. The African Economic Outlook records extensively how the young fare in labor markets. Lack of demand for labor, absence of meritocracy, and lack of proper training are the top three barriers to getting a job.

This article was originally published on Fair Observer.


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Bankinter expects 3Q vertigo in sound cycle

MADRID | Bankinter Analysis | 3Q Perspectives. Economic cycle speeds up and, mostly, gains soundness and reliability. Global growth will consolidate in 2014/2015 by +3%/+4% with positive news for developed countries and less favorable surprises in emerging markets. Japan and India are the exception to this rule. Spain will also amaze and main economic risk will lie in regional regional integrity issues whose aftermath may be undervalued, regardless the final scenario.


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Spain produces more than 1m cars, aims +2m

MADRID | The Corner | The production of vehicles in Spain exceeded one million units in 2014, after the 7% growth recorded in May, according to the Spanish Association of Car and Lorry Manufacturers (ANFAC). Thus, during that month, the level of manufacturing reached 232,762 units and the total annualized was 1,065,879 vehicles. During the first five months of the year, the production of vehicles in Spain grew by 11%. ANFAC estimates that the recording of production will reach 2.4 million by the end of 2014.