emerging markets


Fed: “Just Hike Rates”

Fernando Barciela | The Federal Reserve’s minutes which were released last Wednesday show that a rate hike is firmly on the cards for this December. But almost everybody seems to think that – if it happens – the rate increase probably will be small, a quarter of a percentage point at most. And, also very importantly, the pace of rate increases after that hike will be gradual. Before any further decision about future hikes the Fed will want to study the consequences.





A close up of a dollar note

The dollar’s unsettling upsurge

MADRID | March 15, 2015 | By JP Marín ArreseThe markets have discounted an unchallenged drift upwards of the US currency, after the ECB embarked on its ambitious asset-buying scheme. Yet few anticipated the move might come so soon and reach such a rapid pace. As the Euro turns its retreat into a disorderly rout, emerging economies like Brazil are falling under unbearable pressure. The dollar’s swift upsurge has pounded global markets. 


emerging markets are investor's Achilles heel those days

Emerging markets = Investors’ Achilles heel

The Corner | March 11, 2015 | The market still points to emerging markets as one of the most vulnerable areas in the global economy. The absence of a rebound in the price of commodities (despite oil’s recent revaluation) is hampering these countries’ economic recovery. 


No Picture

What are the upside risks for EM in 2015?

ZURICH | UBS analysts | We have painted a fairly sombre picture for emerging markets assets next year. Our base case is that EM debt will generate returns of 0-2%, while EM equities should yield 5-7% returns for USD based investors. The main thesis that underlies this view is that the growth alpha between EM and DM will fall further, with sluggishness in exports a critical concern.


Russia: the real effects of sanctions

MADRID | The Corner | The EU is considering harder sanctions on Russia after the downing of a Malaysian airliner in Ukraine. What are the effects of the current and potential further sanctions on the Russian economy and, in general, on Emerging Markets (EM) sovereign external debt? Co-CIO Deutsche Asset & Wealth Management’s Asoka Wöhrmann weighs in. (Illustration: Iain Green at The Scotsman)