EMU

demand

Mr Sinn on EMU Core Countries’ Inflation

By Franceso Saraceno | Where [President of CESifo Group Hans-Werner Sinn and I] disagree is on how to trigger the demand-driven boom. Mr Sinn expects this to happen thanks to market mechanisms, just because of the reversal of capital flows that the crisis triggered. He argues that the capital which foolishly left Germany to be invested in peripheral countries, being repatriated would trigger an investment and property boom in Germany, that would reduce German’s current account surplus. This and this alone would be needed. Not a policy of wage increases, useless, nor a fiscal expansion even more useless. Problem is, the data speak against Mr Sinn’s belief. Since the crisis hit, capital massively left peripheral countries, and yet this did not fuel domestic demand in Germany.

 


EMU

Without a banking union, EMU makes no sense

MADRID | By Julia Pastor | Financial integration that will result from the European banking union will definitely help to reduce systemic risks and simplify an industry that deeply questioned during the crisis. Strengthening capital standards, as established in the Basel III framework, as well rethinking the role of the once ‘too big to fail’ entities are some of the regulatory changes, Governor of the Bank of Spain, Pablo Linde, explained in Madrid on Thursday.



European Union

EMU banking : well-behaved vs rogue systems?

MADRID | By Luis Martí | The European banking union project received a remarkable boost last December, even if a major chapter, the bank resolution fund, had to conform to German requirements and stay on a national basis. This part of the agreement is a moot point, and Southern countries should have raised their voices and taken a firm stand against, as Münchau also wrote, no matter the delay inflicted to the working agenda of the eurogroup.


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Recession in euro area milder with Spain self-financing by 2014, says LGIM

LONDON | The euro area's debt-burdened economy is unlikely to improve soon, but it has built in up resilience against steep declines. The downturn this time should be softer than it was four years ago, Legal & General Investment Management LGIM said in an investor note. The report explained that growth in the euro area will remain weak but that a severe recession in the region as a whole is…


xlkjc

The EMU still needs fixing

MADRID | The Summit has just avoided the worst from happening. Super-Mario and an unexpectedly bold Mariano Rajoy achieved a coup d’état toppling Ms Merkel from her undisputed pedestal. Hollande’s support was vital in depriving her of her hitherto boundless power. Yet one has the impression we assisted to a rehearsed show meant to provide an excuse for Germany to cave in to pressure. Everyone was afraid of having to confront the…


No Picture

Euro zone PMI in April at mid-2009 levels

The Purchasing Managers Index provides one of the most reliable hints about a country’s GDP behaviour, so isn’t difficult to agree with all observers that April’s relapse in PMI figures in the euro zone spell loss of momentum in industrial activity. The data are at the lowest level since mid-2009. With no signs of acceleration of the indicators of activity and with early sentiment indexes’ falling in the second quarter of 2012, the risk of the…




No Picture

OECD figures put EMU's unemployment at 10%, US's at 9%

Link analyst note | “The unemployment rate among the member countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) remained stable in July compared to June, at 8.2%, a level maintained for the fifth consecutive month. The OECD notes that the largest increase in that month was recorded in Luxembourg (three tenths, up to 4.6%), while the largest fall was in Mexico (five tenths, down to 5.3%). Spain, where…