The three countries most affected by the coronavirus crisis will be Italy, Spain and France, with falls in GDP of 11.2%, 10.9% and 10.6% respectively this year. For the region as a whole, GDP will contract by 8.7% in 2020 compared to the 7.7% previously expected. By 2021 it expects GDP to grow by 6.1%. In the second half of next year, the Commission sees a two speed recovery happening in the EU, with the existing divergences in the area becoming even more pronounced.