We can expect a rise in interest rates in 2017, driven up by the Fed, but fuelled by doubts over Europe. And I would bet the dollar will appreciate against the euro and the yuan – and sterling – although I am not normally a betting man.
The reality being faced in the US and abroad is that the current world order has failed to deliver its promises.
The thesis is reasonable and well-known: greater growth, lower deficit. But what happened in 2015 seems to corroborate another idea: a larger deficit (-5%) fuels the biggest growth in Europe (3.2%). So the government unilaterally raises the 2016 deficit target from 2.8% to 3.6%, while Brussels is going for 3.9%.
BoAML | We have remained quite bearish on Euro area inflation for the past few years, particularly compared with ECB forecasts (but also consensus), and have highlighted the many downside risks to the inflation outlook.
Yiannis Mouzakis via Macropolis | | Understandably, when the International Monetary Fund published its Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) last week, its gloomy projections regarding the unsustainability of Greece’s debt drew all the attention. This meant that many overlooked the fact that the Fund was even gloomier about the Greek economy’s long-term growth prospects.
UBP | Unsurprisingly, the ECB kept its monetary policy unchanged. Corporate bonds buying are going to start on June 8th and the TLTRO on June 22nd.
Yiannis Mouzakis via Macropolis | Following an 11-hour Eurogroup that brought back memories of other classic encounters between Greece and its lenders, an agreement was reached to disburse 10.3 billion euros from the programme’s financing in two tranches – next month and in September – as the much-contested debt issue was put on the table.
In Sober Look, Marcello Minenna gives us a clue about a possible new breach in the euro’s structure. A few years ago (2011-2012), when the euro was going through its worst time, one of the consequences was that the central banks in the peripheral countries increased their debt position with TARGET2.
Spain depends on Europe, but in a rather odd way, because Europe is a carcass without a head and without any initiative. Europe has left us in doubt over our deficit because we were in an electoral period. And this brutal wear and tear, which has not been good for us, on the contrary, has not ended. After June 27, whatever happens, the government will be even weaker, whichever it is.
Time is moving on. After the more than satisfactory agreement reached by Prime Minister David Cameron after renegotiating the UK’s relationship with the European Union, the countdown to the June 23rd referendum has begun. And as happened with the Scottish referendum, the British government is ready to bring out all the big guns.