Shaun Riordan | Trump’s behaviour at the Singapore Summit with Kim Jung Un has little to do with foreign policy, or indeed North Korea. Like his attacks on allies at the G7 Summit last week, it is aimed at the mid-term elections for Congress. Long-time US allies count for little compared to Trump’s domestic political needs. Europe must take responsibility for its own future.
A three-party “Jamaica” coalition in Germany may not be so bad for Europe as observers fear. The real benefit for Europe would be German domestic policy. After four years of stasis under the grand coalition, the “Jamaica” parties could transform the German economy
By Alexander Coward|While it was a tragic day for those whimsical souls who see the lie in the notion of Britain being a modern great power, recognizing its status as a medium-sized country that used to have an empire, when Article 50 was triggered on March 29 it was not a sad day for Europe.
Nick Ottens via The Atlantic Sentinel | Brexit fundamentalists scored another victory on Wednesday, when the United Kingdom began the process of withdrawing from the European Union without a plan for what comes next.
We can expect a rise in interest rates in 2017, driven up by the Fed, but fuelled by doubts over Europe. And I would bet the dollar will appreciate against the euro and the yuan – and sterling – although I am not normally a betting man.
The reality being faced in the US and abroad is that the current world order has failed to deliver its promises.
The thesis is reasonable and well-known: greater growth, lower deficit. But what happened in 2015 seems to corroborate another idea: a larger deficit (-5%) fuels the biggest growth in Europe (3.2%). So the government unilaterally raises the 2016 deficit target from 2.8% to 3.6%, while Brussels is going for 3.9%.
BoAML | We have remained quite bearish on Euro area inflation for the past few years, particularly compared with ECB forecasts (but also consensus), and have highlighted the many downside risks to the inflation outlook.
Yiannis Mouzakis via Macropolis | | Understandably, when the International Monetary Fund published its Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) last week, its gloomy projections regarding the unsustainability of Greece’s debt drew all the attention. This meant that many overlooked the fact that the Fund was even gloomier about the Greek economy’s long-term growth prospects.
UBP | Unsurprisingly, the ECB kept its monetary policy unchanged. Corporate bonds buying are going to start on June 8th and the TLTRO on June 22nd.