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Standard Poors

In the World, World economy 23rd October 2020

The Risk Of Huge Increase In Spending And Public Debt Due To Covid-19 Will Lead To More Ratings Downgrades

S&P has warned of the possibility of a second wave of sovereign credit rating downgrades around the world. So far in 2020, the firm has downgraded ratings or outlook for 60 countries. The problem lies in the effects of COVID-19 that be will dragged on over the next few years. In fact, some countries will add 15-20 GDP points to their public debt, which otherwise would have taken four or five years to accumulate. In addition, public spending will continue to be above normal for a period that can extend 3-5 years.

consumption recovery 1

World economy 29th June 2020

Consumption: Support Point For Recovery

José Ramón Díez Guijarro (Bankia Estudios ) | The first weeks of the opening of the economies are serving to gauge the response of consumption, a key variable in determining the profile and intensity of the recovery. In the US, the fiscal programmes for aid to families injected more than 300 billion dollars into disposable income in the second quarter. In Europe, instead of using direct aid as in the US, they have preferred to activate temporary employment suspension programmes (ERTE in Spain, kurzabeit in Germany, etc).

Earnings US vs Europe

World economy 26th June 2020

The Gap Between The US And Europe On The Pandemic Front Is Getting Wider

Gilles Moec (AXA IM) | The divergence between Europe and the United States on the pandemic front continues.In the latter, the number of states facing an acceleration in the propagation of the virus rose furthe. Meanwhile, in Europe, while some clusters continue to appear, the speed of the epidemic is still markedly lower than when authorities considered it was safe to start re-opening the economy.

oil futures

World economy 21st April 2020

Doing the oil market’s dirty work

Bank of America Global Research | Oil futures have collapsed by more than 60% since the start of the year, with the WTI front month contract testing $20/bbl several times in recent weeks. The dramatic decline in prices is attributable in part to the oil price war, but the primary driver has been demand. As coronavirus fears forced governments around the world to shut down their economies, demand for refined products has been hit particularly hard.

Net wealth of European households lost in the crisis recovered; now is over seven times disposable income

European economy 14th February 2020

Net Wealth Of European Households Lost In The Crisis Recovered; Now Is Over Seven Times Disposable Income

In its latest monthly report, the European Central Bank has published an interesting study on the recent evolution of the wealth of European families.The monetary authority’s objective is to relate families’ net wealth component (assets less debt) to their spending decision. It’s a fact that, in theory,  net wealth accumulated with job prospects are both key for household consumption. In addition, wealth also has theoretical consequences for the design of monetary policy.

Unidas Podemos: nepotism, communism and “good governance”

Opinion 7th January 2020

Unidas Podemos: Nepotism, Communism And “Good Governance”

Before it has a president -Pedro Sánchez- Spain has known the names of half of its future cabinet members, the ones appointed by Pablo Iglesias, leader of Unidas Podemos and future vice-president of the PSOE-UP Coalition Government, who, to stress his independence and loyalty to PSOE and President Sánchez, has announced the names of the four ministers (cabinet members) that he, and not Sánchez, has chosen. A good start.
Bypassing obstacles for 2020

Markets, World economy 1st January 2020

Bypassing Obstacles For 2020

José Ramón Díez Guijarro (Bankia Estudios) | The end of the year has served to dismiss some of the doubts that have distorted the decisions of the economic agents during the last months, ballasting the growth rates of the activity. Visibility has improved in the short term, yet uncertainty is here to stay

markets

Markets 27th November 2019

Macro is priced in

A&G Banca | The last macro data from November are generally better , but as the indexes of economic surprises point out, the rebound is less remarkable than the consensus forecast.