The ECB will stop injecting liquidity into the system next December. This leaves Eurozone banks in a slightly odd situation: returning to “normality” after years of atypical measures. The withdrawal of QE will have different impacts on different countries, depending on the characteristics of the models of their banking business.
J.L.M. Campuzano (Spanish Banking Assocation) | We are echoing the IMF’s recent report on the evolution of the European economy. All of Europe is seeing growth, but this has dynamic has to be supported by structural reforms which boost potential growth and best financing to achieve this.
In a note on regional commercial banks, AlphaValue analysts flag that lenders in southern European countries have been amongst the better performers in terms of share price and P/BV. Spanish bank Sabadell is amongst their top picks.
Analysts at Bankinter offer an investment strategy for the European banks ahead of the new year. Overall they reiterate their recommendation to maintain a structural position in banks due to the improvment in the quality of their balances and the recovery in business volumes.
The recovery seen in the banks’ activity at an international level at the beginning of this year has been temporary. In line with data from the BIS, the banks’ international activity fell $91 in the second quarter from the first. With the exception of loans to non-banking institutions.
Ratings agency Moody’s said yesterday that the European banks’ costs have increased due to the fact that the rise in regulatory and restructuring costs is eating up all the savings resulting from branch closures and workforce reductions.
José Luis M. Campuzano (Spanish Banking Association) |The ECB believes the net effect of a policy of zero interest rates (negative in the case of the deposit rate) has been positive for the revenues of the different economic players. But the impact has not been equal.
José Luis M. Campuzano (Spanish Banking Association) | It’s been balance sheet adjustments and the worsening of the deliquency rate which have been mainly responsible for the deterioration in banking margins over the last few years. It’s important for the ECB to establish a clear strategy for monetary normalisation for the future.
The environment for European banks is changing for the better. The sector’s fundamentals are improving and Bankinter sees the recent ‘impasse’ in their trading performance as a buy oportunity.
The Italian banks are struggling for survival. And the prospects for some of the biggest German banks are also gloomy. But the authorities in both countries are reluctant to act quickly on the assumption that time may solve the problems.