Société Générale Markets | We remain cautious about the Investment Bank sector, with estimated decline in incomes of -9% in 2019, followed by stabilisation in the next two years. Our estimates of EPS are generally below the consensus.
According to a note to clients, Morgan Stanley believes that UBS, HSBC and Société Générale should perform well during the quarter. Compared with the US Banks, they have a downward risk due to investment banking fees and upside due to the outlook for equities.
ZURICH | The Corner | UBS analysts explain that in September, volatility started rising in almost all major markets and asset classes. Higher Rates and FX volatility, driven by diverging monetary policies in the US and Europe, typically suggest higher activity and more favourable operating conditions for FICC. Although UBS analyts are still cautious about FICC for structural reasons, some cyclical improvement and potential upgrades in FICC consensus estimates for Q3 2014 are now more likely (UBS tweaks his CS and DBK 2014E EPS forecasts 2% and 3% upwards, respectively). For global IBs, they forecast FICC revenues up 9%, Equities up 3% and IBD up 12% y/y. In the European IB space, they prefer Barclays and SocGen for stock specific reasons.