I don’t have the slightest doubt that Draghi is going to do the impossible to keep the euro, but it doesn’t depend on him. The euro is a false project which should have happened when things were more settled, in other words, as Draghi says, “when there was a single market.”
Eurozone inflation increased above the European Central Bank’s target for the first time in four years, Eurostat’s figures showed on Thursday. Inflation accelerated to 2 % in February from 1.8 % in January. A similar higher rate was last seen in January 2013. Markets expected prices to rise 1.9 %.
Yes, inflation is a global phenomenon, and inflation moving higher elsewhere will help Euro area inflation. According to BoAML, while the global backdrop will be helping, it will not move the needle enough to sustain inflation beyond the mid-year hump. Analysts think that a gradual improvement in the global output gap will generate a cumulative increase of 5bps in Euro area core inflation.
Germany’s external trade figures are an insult for the EU and the euro- it reaches the incredible figure of 300 billion euros, or 9% of GDP. It doesn’t look like the US would be too unhappy about getting rid of the single currency, with the help of Le Pen and others.
The advances in inflation figures throughout the Eurozone will be a subject of debate in the coming weeks, not least because of its bigger-than-expected rise. An increase which has a common thread in the form of hikes in energy prices and, to a lesser extent, in food prices.
It was expected Draghi to avoid any discussion of early exit from QE and he did so. The ECB’s president stuck to the December line. “Self sustained”, not “transient” inflation is wanted. Still, things may complicate this spring.
Julius Baer | Eurozone inflation is approaching its highest level since late 2013 with a December reading on Wednesday at 1.1%. A glance at the core inflation rate, which excludes the volatile food and energy component, delivers the explanation of the recent surge
As far as the global economy is concerned, 2017 will be the year when new US President Donald Trump will make his mark. That said, how far his influence will reach is still uncertain as it is still too soon to know how many of his policies will be implemented.
The European banking system is much larger than the US’, namely three times –$33.2 trillion against $13.4 trillion. Hung Tran, Executive Managing Director at the Institute of International Finance, explained to The Corner how this could result in the Eurozone becoming one of the world’s lenders.
BoAML | Euro area GDP grew 0.3% qoq in 3Q, in line with consensus expectations and our tracker. Meanwhile, inflation was again weaker than the release would suggest, if we look at the finer details.