The inflation rate for the Euro Area (flash estimate) was at +0.4% in September. It is the highest since October 2014. In August the inflation rate was at 0.2%. The core inflation rate was stable at 0.8%. The explanation has to be found in the oil price profile as said by Philippe Waechter, Chief Economist at Natixis AM.
At a time when euroscepticism is on the rise in Europe, debate also continues over the pros and cons of a two-speed euro.
Peter Lundgreen via Caixin| What should be deeply worrying about the growing banking crisis in Italy is the origin of the non-performing loans. One significant sector is retail and wholesale, meaning it’s a widespread problem. A severe banking crisis is a shock for any economy and will, in many cases, hamper economic growth. This is the risk that Italy and the Eurozone are facing.
The impact of Brexit on the markets has gone through different stages. There was the initial upheaval in the wake of the referendum result, which had its maximum effect on June 24 when the Ibex recorded its biggest ever fall. And now the stock market and European public debt yields have recovered to pre-Brexit levels.
James Alexander | It’s been lonely blogging that the Euro Area economy was not nearly as bad as consensus reckons, even consensus amongst our fellow Market Monetarists. But the data has consistently shown Euro Area NGDP growth doing better, and at least as good as the long-term average.
George Soros via Caixin | Europe’s leaders must seize the moment to push forward reforms that can reshape the EU into an organization that people want to be a part of. Until the British public voted to leave the European Union, the refugee crisis was the greatest problem Europe faced. Indeed, that crisis played a critical role in bringing about the greater calamity of Brexit.
AXA IM | Companies have re-leveraged their balance sheets since the global financial crisis (GFC), driven by low borrowing costs. Although heightened, corporate leverage is not currently excessive in developed markets, although we see signs of concern in emerging markets. In this note we assess whether we should be concerned about corporate leverage at current levels.
BofAML | We have been among the most bearish on Euro Area inflation, expecting 0.9% post-Brexit inflation in 2017, versus consensus at 1.3%. This also applies to core inflation, where we expect a very mild trend over the next two years that would leave core inflation slightly above 1% by 2018. Still, markets are pricing declining inflation over the next few years.
Last week the Council decided that Spain and Portugal’s recent efforts to reduce deficit were not enough. This lead to the two countries being fined, the first time this happens since the inception of the euro.
Why do problems emanate in the South, even if you discount Greece (Deep South)? For the purposes of this post, South comprises France, Italy, Spain and Portugal, respectively the second, third and fourth largest Eurozone economies. North considers Germany (the largest EZ economy), Belgium, Netherlands and Austria.