Not everything is clear through a crystal ball. The Fed is in the process of “normalising” interest rates, but one has to ask whether anyone really believes this…In other words, it appears the market is not convinced that the economy is getting stronger, nor that the inflation rate is hugely threatening.
Fed rate hikes
I believe central banks don’t control long-term rates – which are decisive for investment – and that they can influence them in what we would call normal circumstances, namely when GDP is expanding and inflation is at its optimum level. The central bank trys to control the private market’s expectations, but it doesn’t always succeed.
UBS | 81 months and 200% higher, this US Equity and Derivatives’ Bull is the third longest since 1932 and surpasses the average of 138%. While age or return alone does not signal The End, increasing volatility, Fed rate hikes, and an M&A boom in its third year have all preceded past tops.
There is a definite clash between investors and economists over the US economy. According to Intermoney’s Spanish analysts, markets are looking for reasons to take apart the thesis about the country’s resilient activity, arguing that moderate growth is insufficient. Then there are the economic purists, including many Fed members, who are confident the US recovery is sustainable.