FED

Central banks and normalisation policy

Could the central banks dampen the financial markets’ enthusiam?

Kommer van Trigt (Robeco) | The markets are discounting that in the next few months there will be more certainty surrounding the central banks’ normalisation strategy. In its quarterly outlook, Robeco’s Global Fixed Income Macro team says it makes sense for the central banks to begin to normalise their policies.


US monetary policy: pragmatism as new guidance

Monetary normalisation process remains on track

José Luis M. Campuzano (Spanish Banking Association) | The markets are discounting that in the next few months we will see greater certainty in monetary normalisation strategy. The start of the Fed’s balance sheet adjustment can also provide the rest of the central banks with information on the reversion of quantitative measures.


recent central bank announcements may not be enough

The Confused Signs Regarding The Fed’s Monetary Normalisation

Not everything is clear through a crystal ball. The Fed is in the process of “normalising” interest rates, but one has to ask whether anyone really believes this…In other words, it appears the market is not convinced that the economy is getting stronger, nor that the inflation rate is hugely threatening.



US economy growth

Nine Years Of Economic Growth In The US

The US economy has entered its ninth year of growth and the recovery could last over 10 years, clocking up a new record. At this stage the doubt surrounding an atypical recovery is whether the best thing is for the Fed to maintain its monetary policy of the last few months and continue to gradually raise interest rates, despite the absence of inflationary pressures.


US market volatility

Record Low Volatility; Too Much Complacency Or Is The Economy Under Control?

There are various ways of measuring the volatility of equities, but for me the most representative are: a) what is known in the Anglo-Saxon world as the fear index, VIX, and b) the ample range formed by the intra-day movement of an asset price. In other words the difference between the maximum and minimum level of a share price or index within the same day. As Víctor Peiro from GVC Gaesco points, if we look at the performance of this volatility index, both for the US and European indices, we can see we are close to record lows.


global productive investment growth

Why Is Productive Investment Not Growing More?

J.L.M. Campuzano (Spanish Banking Association) | According to IMF data, the pace of growth of productive investment has slown in economies which are emerging and in the process of developing from levels of 10% in 2010 to 3.6% at the moment.


yellen elegante

Markets Underestimate Janet Yellen’s Determination

Little did observers expect Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s energetic and upbeat account of economic prospects ahead. They discovered, much to their surprise, that underperforming inflation data was brushed aside as she shifted to forecasts tailored to match with the rate stiffening.