Christian Gattiker, Head of Research, Julius Baer │It is about time: central bankers present their take on the current mess at the Jackson Hole meeting, the prime plat-form for this. The more concerned they are the better. We think concerted central bank action will still avoid a global recession. Warming up to fiscal easing, as in Germany, is the icing on the cake.
Renta 4 | The September meetings of the Federal Reserve and ECB will be key in economic and market developments in the Autumn. The market discounts with 58% probability an ECB cut in the deposit rate to -0.6%.
Miguel Navascués | Central banks announcements are better than nothing, but may not be enough. In my opinion, the central message of Keynes is that, for those taking investment decisions, the future cannot be reduced to a risk calculus formula, because there is always a zone of uncertainty (by definition incalculable) which influences spending decisions: consumption, but, above all, productive investment.
JP Marin-Arrese │Any seasoned central banker knows by heart that words rather than measures better serve monetary policy. The material effect any move delivers doesn’t match the impact on expectations and market sentiment an authoritative message conveys.
Christian Scherrmann (DWS) | As was expected , the Federal Reserve cut interest rates 25 base points to a range of 2.0-2.25% at the July meeting of its Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).
Andrea Iannelli (Fidelity) | Central banks have again become the protagonists in the quarter which has just ended. A generalised movement towards more expansionary positions, with the Federal Reserve in the lead, supported risk tolerance and lifting all kinds of assets, reversing the poor returns registered in 2018.
The Federal Reserve is more or less protected from the demands of political parties. But what about the influence from ‘special interest groups’ such as the banking industry on Fed policymaking? “There is hardly be any doubt that the Fed caters, first and foremost, to the needs of commercial and investment banks, ” says a report from Degussa.
Julius Baer Research | In the six weeks since the last Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting, the world has been shaken by several events. Despite rallying equity markets, investors stay rattled and filled with unease. Yet in the US, news on the economic front has been mainly positive. Indicators such as the June employment report, retail sales, housing starts, capacity utilization and the service industry have all beaten expectations.
James Alexander via Historinhas | The Federal Reserve and other central banks like to see themselves as “data-dependent”. They sit in objective judgement of the facts of the economy as revealed by “data” and then portentously decide whether to attempt to alter the future facts with monetary tightening or loosening.
Disappointing job growth in May at roughly one-third of the expected figure, coupled with a downward revision for the previous two months, cast unexpected doubts on the US recovery. The labour market has slowed to half the pace seen a year ago.