Markets

World economy 15th July 2014

Q2 Earnings preview – easier FX, sequentially a bit better growth and hurdle rate has come down

MADRID | By The Corner | Yet again this year equities have moved higher despite negative EPS revisions. While JPMorgan started the year with a constructive outlook on equity markets, they believed that for the 4th year in a row IBES projections would need to be downgraded. The investor concern now is that negative revisions could continue into H2, similar to the trend observed in Europe in each of the last three years.

Markets 10th July 2014

Experts divided on US rate rise

MADRID | By Francisco López | Investors are closely looking economists’ forecasts about the next rate hike in the United States. Until recently, the vast majority opted for movements in the second part of 2015. Now, after the last job creation data, some analysts believe that the rise could come as early as 1Q15.

Markets 7th July 2014

Don’t dismiss a pronounced correction of markets

MADRID | By The Corner | Corporate earnings season (2Q14) is about to start in Wall Street, with Alcoa opening the way and with the major American market indexes –Dow Jones and S&P 500- at maximum levels. The macroeconomic perspectives of the country will also help, especially after having overcome the impact of the weather on the GDP, as well as the certainty that the Western central banks are committed to support the economic recovery. Thus, investors expect that the official interest rates will keep at very low levels in relative historical terms for a long period of time.

Markets 21st June 2014

What the market is really telling about the US recovery

LONDON| By Stephane Deo and Ramin Nakisa at UBS | At the time of writing, the Treasury curve is telling the potential US GDP growth rate is very low – in the neighbourhood of 1%. The 30-year real yield is at 1.09% (but dipped below 1% recently), the 10-year real yield is at a frightening 0.36%, and the 5-year-in-5-year yield, a good proxy of where the market thinks long-term growth will settle, is at 1.05% (but also dipped below 1% recently).Taking those numbers at face value, we would have to conclude that the current recovery is doomed, and that growth will level off soon at a very disappointing level.

In Europe 30th May 2014

Why does the ECB feel so uneasy?

MADRID | By J.P. Marín Arrese | Markets are discounting an easing in European monetary policy in the forthcoming days. Yet, the mood in the ECB is far from cheerful. It feels being dragged into action by political constraints.

World economy 19th May 2014

Yet another delay in the long-awaited global growth acceleration

LONDON | By Barclays analysts | 2014 was supposed to be different. After three years of disappointment, this was meant to be the year when the global economy had a broader, higher and more persistently solid level of growth – at least, this was the consensus narrative. In the end, the seasonally adjusted quarterly rate of global growth in Q1 was among the weakest of the recovery. US growth was near zero (probably negative after revisions) and China’s GDP growth was below already low forecasts.

World economy 28th April 2014

Market volatilities are low, but not exceedingly so

LONDON | By Aroop Chatterjee at Barclays | Implied volatilities in a number of asset markets have been recently trading close to their lowest levels since 2007. This has happened despite prevailing uncertainties about the durability of US economic growth or the path of Fed policy.

World economy 27th January 2014

Earnings season, or the art of managing expectations

WASHINGTON | By Pablo Pardo | We are, again, in the midst of an earnings season. But, should we call it ‘earning season’ or ‘earnings exceed the forecast session’? Because companies tend to earn more than they expected, and also more than the markets’ forecast. Another nail in the coffin of the Efficient Market Hypothesis?

Political reality ignores Nobel winner wisdom

World economy 15th October 2013

Political reality ignores Nobel winner’s wisdom

WASHINGTON | By Pablo Pardo | Robert Schiller has always been an advocate of a moderate government intervention in financial markets. He also criticised the Federal Reserve’s Quantitative Easing (QE) because he considered that asset prices are not among the areas of central banks. However, political reality seems to go in the opposite direction of the new Nobel winner.

Markets 30th September 2013

U.S. Government Shutdown: A Storm Pushes Through the Markets

MADRID | By Luis Arroyo |The clock is ticking: if Congress can’t agree to budget terms, parts of the federal government will shut down by Monday midnight. But markets have reacted differently than expected to this political pulse between Democrats and Republicans.

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