On January 23rd, Germany’s Dax jumped to a new record high. But after no more than eight trading days, the German benchmark index lost over 7%, wiping out all year-to-date gains. Deutsche Bank AM’s reaction is optimistic instead: Its preference of German equities is the healthy macroeconomic environment and state of German corporations. On a 2-year horizon, the Dax could even climb to 15,000 points.
A three-party “Jamaica” coalition in Germany may not be so bad for Europe as observers fear. The real benefit for Europe would be German domestic policy. After four years of stasis under the grand coalition, the “Jamaica” parties could transform the German economy
The summer lull may continue to dampen stock market activity during the month of August, but there are two key events on the investor agenda this week. German GDP figures for Q2 and the minutes of the Fed’s late July meeting.
A political risk scenario is not taking shape in Europe, but that doesn’t mean there are no problems. They are still there and in France they will rear their head under the concept of “cohabitation.” The new president of the French Republic, more than likely, will have to live with the National Assembly being dominated by the traditional parties.
With a very low jobless rate (5,8%), Germany is growing for the eighth year in a row. This is allowing it to attract capital and qualified workers. Even so, the future of the jobs market is a concern, and a key issue in this Autumn’s elections.
Recent surveys in both Germany and France indicate the perception on the part of companies that there will not be the necessary stimuli for economic activity to fuel an acceleration in the economic momentum.
Peter Lundgreen via Caixin | On October 14, the German government lowered its GDP growth forecast for this year from 1.8 percent to 1.7 percent. Despite this, the economic minister, Sigmar Gabriel, expressed his expectation of higher economic growth next year.
The German economy continues sound but turbulence coming from emerging markets could impact sharply on Germany’s export-led growth.
MADRID | April 19, 2015 | By Ana Fuentes | Germany’s Institute for the Study of Labor Chairman Klaus Zimmermann finds the debate between EU ‘austerians’ and ‘stimulus fans’ too shallow. In his view, spending cuts for their own sake were never the German style. In a conversation with The Corner, he explains that the effects of the minimum wage introduction in his country cannot be measured yet and why he thinks the German corporate governance model helped cushion the crisis’ labor market impact.
FRANKFURT| March 19, 2015 | By Lidia Conde | The German economy is posting impressive growth figures, but does the country’s success act as a help or hindrance to it’s European partners?