Some challenges that markets will face in 2019 are not new in the picture: global debt, trade tensions between the US and China, and the sensitive situation in some European countries. We asked some of the best Spanish analysts about their forecast and this is what they said.
Neil Dwane (Allianz) | The response of central banks to the financial crisis 10 years ago may have saved the world from a devastating depression, but it also created a host of unforeseen effects – from more indebtedness to more economic inequality. Looking back at what we got right – and what went wrong – what lessons can we take away for the future?
Intermoney | According to the global bank lobbying group IIF, global debt in 2Q18 fell by $ 1.5 trillion to $ 247 trillion thanks to the reduction between the financial sector and the governments of developed countries. Global debt fell to 317% of GDP, a figure that differs from the one provided by institutions such as the IMF due to the different treatment of information.
The world is over indebted, with a total debt at 380% of global GDP. It is three times it was before the crisis. This debt is both private and public. However, there is no data available on the extent to which this debt has been financed by stock market speculation. We can only infer, from the excessive levels of these indices, that a major part is acting in this activity.
José Luis M. Campuzano (Spanish Banking Association) | “The only thing which is predictable is total unpredictability.” I don’t know who invented this phrase but I believe it is a very good summary of everything we have heard in Davos: wait and see what happens, whatever it is. That doesn’t mean the sentiment of the Agenda has been negative.
HONG KONG | June 18, 2015 | By Alicia García-Herrero via Caixin | Brazil’s economy is burdened by debt and China is leveraging at an unsustainable level, situations that could be exacerbated by Fed tightening.
Intermoney | March 6, 2015 | From 2007-2015, global debt has increased 289% in excess GDP. The rapid increase of global indebtedness and financial asset prices could actually be defined as a global bubble with a major destabilizing factor: the significant surpluses accumulated by certain countries that force others to adopt a deficit position. International liquidity growth has only raised the volume of speculative money flows, which are now able to destabilise any economy, regardless of their economic virtues.