Mobeen Tahir, Associate Director, Research, WisdomTree | On Tuesday, 11 August, gold fell by over 5% and silver retreated nearly 15% prompting investors to wonder if there had been a material shift in market sentiment. Are defensive hedges no longer required? How important are gold and silver as risk sentiment improves? A glance towards the wider market, and indeed economic fundaments, can help answer these questions.
BofA Global Research | Merger and acquisition (M&A) activity in the global gold sector “heated” up in Q2’20 with twelve transactions announced (highest quarterly total since Q4’12) with a total transaction value of $2.86 billion, nearly double that in Q1’20. Historically global gold sector M&A activity heats up during times of buoyant gold prices. The “elephant-in-the-room” was SSR Mining’s friendly $1.71 billion all share merger with Alacer Gold on May 11 2020. The remaining eleven transactions ranged in size from $27mn to $238mn.
Carsten Menke, Head Next Generation Research, Julius Baer | The gold rally continues. Prices pushed higher yesterday, approaching USD 1,800 per ounce for the first time since 2011. Looking back, there were just 26 days in gold’s history on which it traded above that level, almost all of them occurring in August and September 2011, i.e. during the eurozone debt crisis. Holdings of physically backed gold products, our preferred gauge of safe-haven demand, recorded 95 tonnes of inflows in June, taking the year-to-date total to more than 710 tonnes. These are the biggest inflows ever.
Degussa | Unfortunately, those blaming capitalism are barking up the wrong tree. For all their critique of inflationary money, economic hardship and rising inequality are the direct results of governments’ successful war against capitalism, which has been replaced by a system of interventions; the free market system was replaced by a system of decrees and prohibitions, all of which are incompatible with capitalism in the true sense. Against this backdrop, the question arises: How come that people put all the blame on capitalism rather than interventionism-socialism?
Mobeen Tahir (Wisdom Tree) | Following weakness in prices around the middle of March, when liquidity needs created acute selling pressures on gold, the precious metal has resumed its strong run this year with more than 13% price appreciation year to date.
As investors are still struggling to properly price the impact of the coronavirus, volatility in financial markets remains elevated. Risk-on sentiment returned to the markets yesterday, putting pressure on gold. Barring a longer-lasting impact on Chinese growth, we do not expect much more fundamental short-term support from the virus for gold. However, on a longer-term horizon we still see upside and maintain a Constructive view.
Let us talk about the relation between the US dollar price of gold and the quantity of US dollar. In fact, one would think that it is, economically speaking, a rather straightforward relationship: All you need is to compare the supply of physical gold and the quantity of US dollar.
The yellow metal fell 4% in the three months from the end of June — a decline that analysts at Wisdom Tree do not believe is justified by the 11 basis-point rise in bond yields and 0.4% gain in the US dollar over the period. Rather, gold’s poor performance seems to have been driven by a collapse in sentiment.
Gold’s recent winning streak was the mirror image of a weakening US dollar. Julius Baer’s analysts still see upside for the US dollar, resulting from accelerating growth and rising interest rates, which should weigh on gold over the coming months. These rate cycle headwinds should however fade as the year progresses, opening up medium- to longer-term bottom-fishing opportunities.
There no asset which is safe, liquid and provides a good return all at the same time, since these variables usually go in the opposite direction; gold has an extremely high VIX or volatility index and it sometimes exceeds the Standard & Poor 500 index.