The yellow metal fell 4% in the three months from the end of June — a decline that analysts at Wisdom Tree do not believe is justified by the 11 basis-point rise in bond yields and 0.4% gain in the US dollar over the period. Rather, gold’s poor performance seems to have been driven by a collapse in sentiment.
Gold’s recent winning streak was the mirror image of a weakening US dollar. Julius Baer’s analysts still see upside for the US dollar, resulting from accelerating growth and rising interest rates, which should weigh on gold over the coming months. These rate cycle headwinds should however fade as the year progresses, opening up medium- to longer-term bottom-fishing opportunities.
There no asset which is safe, liquid and provides a good return all at the same time, since these variables usually go in the opposite direction; gold has an extremely high VIX or volatility index and it sometimes exceeds the Standard & Poor 500 index.
There are some who consider it is the best safe-haven asset there is, which would never lose value even if the world went bankrupt. We are talking about gold and its infinite qualities, which have made it the most coveted precious metal. But have you ever asked yourself why gold is really so valuable?
Is gold really the best hedge against risk and should we go back to the gold standard? Gold has been stable for a century, but in the last 50 years it has appreciated a lot, seeing a lot of volatility.
BEIJING | Caixin Magazine | A ripple of skepticism recently hit prices of the yellow metal, but gold remains the ultimate hedge on inflation, as former Morgan Stanley’s Chief Economist for Asia Pacific Andy Xie explains. The global economy has already entered into stagflation with a growth rate of 2 percent and inflation at 3 percent. The inflation rate is likely to rise above 4 percent in 18 months while the growth rate will remain stuck in the same range. With inflation twice as high as the growth rate, the global economy will slip deeper into stagflation.
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