MADRID | June 21, 2015 | By JP Marín Arrese | Bertrand Russell coined this famous phrase when the cold war nuclear escalation threatened the survival of the human race. A useful tip for intractable confrontations where sanguine sentiments lead conflicting sides to prefer collective ruin rather than reaching a compromise. The Greek imbroglio is a good example.
MADRID | June 18, 2015 | By Luis Martí | The negotiating tactics of the Greek government can only be understood against the backdrop of an impossible set of electoral promises –impossible, that is, unless the government gained access to an unlimited inflow of financial resources from abroad at no charge. This not being the case, President Tsipras has to act within a constrained framework.
MADRID | June 9, 2015 | By JP Marín Arrese | From the very moment Ms Merkel vowed to put an end to the Greek crisis, she filled the Hellenic sails with hopes of snatching extra concessions. Athens seems well aware that the German Chancellor is under heavy pressure to secure a deal before the G-7 meeting, and that it will profit from this unexpected manna. It will play these winning cards until they become obsolete.
June 8, 2015 | Barclays | After the Greek government failed to reach an agreement with the institutions last week, positions are still far apart and it is very unclear what PM Tsipras wants to achieve, while he is confronted with disagreements within his party. Failure to agree this week would likely make it difficult to have a smooth resolution before the end of June when the programme expires.
ATHENS | April 22, 2015 | By Nick Malkoutzis via MacroPolis | The Greek government made another payment to the International Monetary Fund earlier this month. This time it was just 450 million euros, a relatively manageable amount compared to the 1.5 billion that Greece had to pay back to the IMF in March. Each of these payments brings relief that a possible default has been avoided, but they also bring greater anxiety that a default is getting closer.
The Corner | April 2, 2015 | Manos Giakoumis, chief analyst with Greek financial website Marcropolis, speaks to The Corner about the most pressing issues currently confronting the Greek government. He notes that the ECB squeeze on Greek banks issuance of T-bills could prove problematic in the month ahead, and says that the thorny issue of privatisations could continue to thwart negotiations with the country’s creditors.
The Corner | March 30, 2015 | Consumer confidence in the EMU is set to hit its highest level in eight years, with economic sentiment improving across the currency block. In Spain, inflation figures are expected to remain in negative territory, but with the caveat that lower prices are having positive knock-on effects elsewhere in the economy.
MADRID | March 17, 2015 | By JP Marín Arrese | The cliffhanger tactics applied by Varoufakis have backfired. He has lost precious time in his bid to baptise the barbarous Troika under the more Christian and palatable name of Institutions.
The Corner | March 16, 2015 | The week ahead is likely to be dominated by the FOMC meeting in the US. Market watchers are expecting some movement on the semantics of pronouncements by the US Fed. In essence, any change in language will signal that a rates hike from the central bank is drawing closer.
ATHENS | By Nick Malkoutzis via MacroPolis | Is Friday’s agreement at the Eurogroup a good deal for Greece? In some respects it is but in more respects it is not. Above all, the four-month agreement leaves Greece walking an economic and political tightrope over the next four months without knowing what lies at the end of it.