Alejandro Arevalo (Jupiter’s Head of Strategy, Emerging Markets) | One might think that emerging market debt has had difficult year, but it’s been quite the opposite. At the time of writing, the major EM hard currency indices have all returned more than 11% year to date.
MADRID | Global GDP showed a moderate growth recovery in the second quarter. In Spain, forecasts point to GDP growth accelerating again to 1% Q0Q, one of the highest rates in the eurozone.
MADRID | March 27, 2015 | By Francisco López | The Spanish economy is currently growing at cruising speed and looks set to remain at its current altitude in the medium term, with the possibility that growth could exceed 3% this year.
MADRID | The Corner | Things are looking up for Spanish car manufacturers, and with exports expected to remain strong,2015 looks like being another good year.
ZURICH | UBS analysts | We review some of the key Eurozone developments of 2014, and look ahead to 2015 and beyond. Eurozone growth has disappointed in 2014, mainly due to Germany, France and Italy. Economic performance over the coming months is likely to remain subdued, given various risk factors, which are likely to weigh on sentiment.
MADRID | By Luis Arroyo | What has growth to do with growing inequality? Until recently, we thought that inequality favoured growth, or in anycase it had a neutral impact on it. Growth was the “best supplier” to create new opportunities, through the vertical mobility of the most flexible countries. But the OECD released this report showing how inequality “significantly” curbs economic prosperity. And yet, Krugman is skeptical that the inverse correlation between inequality and growth is so obvious. According to him, strong evidence is lacking, and there are signs that part of inequality can be cured with growth.
ZURICH | UBS analysts | The initial move in oil price was greeted as stimulating growth. The precipitous decline is triggering destabilising factors, especially in EM. As the US economy has accelerated, concern is growing that the Fed is about to shift policy in ways suited to its domestic objectives but not to the needs of increasingly stressed emerging and commodity producing countries and companies. In short, uneven global growth is simultaneously raising the spectre of unsustainable debt deflation across important parts of the (mostly emerging) world and a tightening of US dollar liquidity precisely when it is most needed.
MADRID | The Corner | According to Patrice Gautry, chief economist at UBP, there is little doubt that monetary policy – due to be presented in detail at the beginning of next year – will be revised and reshuffled as follows: 1) bigger ECB spending; 2) more of a focus on private and public bond purchases rather than on LTROs and ABS and CoCo purchases.In short, broadened QE should kick in on 22 January, at the next ECB meeting.
MADRID | The Corner | Risks for the Eurozone have significantly intensified in the last six months. According to experts at Afi, the reduction of the risk premium and more benign monetary conditions are not enough to boost the economic activity. The Euro depreciation, although stronger than the Dollar, was not as intense as that of other currencies, which suggests a moderate growth scenario for the export of the region. In such context, what is likely to happen with the interest rates in the next six months?