Trade barriers are causing more insolvencies in the agricultural sector, while the retail sector is vulnerable to rising import costs. Crédito y Caución expects the United States to deepen its slowdown in 2020. The Spanish credit insurer expects GDP growth of 1.7%, largely supported by private consumption in the face of weak investment, public spending and exports. Although household finances are in better shape than a decade ago, among companies there has been an increase in debt and a deterioration in their credit capacity.
Political uncertainty about the Brexit procedure caused the United Kingdom’s (UK’s) gross domestic product (GDP) to stagnate in the fourth quarter of 2019. However, the strong decrease in political uncertainty since the 12 December parliamentary election should allow the UK economy to rebound back to growth during the first quarter of this year, explains Janwillem Acket, chief economist at Julius Baer.
The world has changed a lot because China has changed a lot. China’s share of global GDP has risen from a negligible 2% in 1990 to 15.9%. Meanwhile, the other powers have fallen in that period: Japan, from 14 to 5.8%; Europe, from 35% to 21.9%; and the USA, from 27% to 23.9%, according to Weltbank data. So hundreds of thousands of jobs in Germany are now dependent on China. And all over the world, because China today accounts for 1/3 of world growth.
Alejandro Arevalo (Jupiter’s Head of Strategy, Emerging Markets) | One might think that emerging market debt has had difficult year, but it’s been quite the opposite. At the time of writing, the major EM hard currency indices have all returned more than 11% year to date.
MADRID | Global GDP showed a moderate growth recovery in the second quarter. In Spain, forecasts point to GDP growth accelerating again to 1% Q0Q, one of the highest rates in the eurozone.
MADRID | March 27, 2015 | By Francisco López | The Spanish economy is currently growing at cruising speed and looks set to remain at its current altitude in the medium term, with the possibility that growth could exceed 3% this year.
MADRID | The Corner | Things are looking up for Spanish car manufacturers, and with exports expected to remain strong,2015 looks like being another good year.
ZURICH | UBS analysts | We review some of the key Eurozone developments of 2014, and look ahead to 2015 and beyond. Eurozone growth has disappointed in 2014, mainly due to Germany, France and Italy. Economic performance over the coming months is likely to remain subdued, given various risk factors, which are likely to weigh on sentiment.
MADRID | By Luis Arroyo | What has growth to do with growing inequality? Until recently, we thought that inequality favoured growth, or in anycase it had a neutral impact on it. Growth was the “best supplier” to create new opportunities, through the vertical mobility of the most flexible countries. But the OECD released this report showing how inequality “significantly” curbs economic prosperity. And yet, Krugman is skeptical that the inverse correlation between inequality and growth is so obvious. According to him, strong evidence is lacking, and there are signs that part of inequality can be cured with growth.