MADRID | The Corner | He praised budget contention and austerity, and yet his first announcement as the European Commission new president has to do with investment: Jean Claude Juncker called for a 300 bn euro public-private investment reindustrialisation programme over the next three years.
MADRID | By The Corner | Yet again this year equities have moved higher despite negative EPS revisions. While JPMorgan started the year with a constructive outlook on equity markets, they believed that for the 4th year in a row IBES projections would need to be downgraded. The investor concern now is that negative revisions could continue into H2, similar to the trend observed in Europe in each of the last three years.
MADRID | By The Corner | Experts at JPMorgan are less worried about near-term disturbances and flows and more about the medium-term outlook for economic growth. Over the past three years, the world economy has grown only at a 2.5% pace, below potential and thus not able to make up for what we lost in the recession. Each year, they keep forecasting that growth will rise to a 3% handle, but have been steadily disappointed.
LONDON | By Barclays analysts | Consumer confidence increased again in June, reaching positive territory for the first time since March 2005. The GfK consumer confidence index rose to 1 from 0 in May, in line with our expectations (consensus: 2). Improvements were generally broad-based, with ‘general economic situation over the last 12 months’ improving the most, up 2 points to -3.
MADRID | By The Corner | Spain’s public debt grew 7.12 percent in 1Q14 to 989.9 billion euros, which is 96.8 percent of its GDP. The government’s debt went up 8.4 percent from the first three months of 2013 to 864 billion euros, accounting for by far the largest share of the total, according to Bank of Spain figures published Friday. Morgan Stanley analysts emphasize the changes of macroeconomic prospects and the increase of forecasts in peripheral countries. From its analytics department, growth levels for Spain, Portugal and Ireland were raised on Monday.
MADRID | The Corner | After a sluggish start, growth seems to pick up in the euro area. The 18 countries sharing the common currency showed an industrial production rise of +0.8% in Apr 2014 over Mar 2014, and +1.4% over Apr 13, according to Eurostat.
LONDON | By Barclays analysts | 2014 was supposed to be different. After three years of disappointment, this was meant to be the year when the global economy had a broader, higher and more persistently solid level of growth – at least, this was the consensus narrative. In the end, the seasonally adjusted quarterly rate of global growth in Q1 was among the weakest of the recovery. US growth was near zero (probably negative after revisions) and China’s GDP growth was below already low forecasts.
China (which grew by 7.7% in 4Q13) wants to pursue a very different strategy in 2014, setting “reasonable growth” as its macroeconomic goal, meaning by that a rate that will support the country’s economic restructuring and upgrading. But such a technical description fails to meet society’s real needs and achievements, and so new alternative models are booming.
LONDON | By Barclays analysts | We expect Europe to experience a long period of moderate economic growth, coupled with very low inflation: for the EU28, GDP should grow 1.5% in 2014 and accelerate to 1.7% in 2015, while inflation should bottom at 1.2% in 2014 before edging up slightly, to 1.4%, in 2015.
Iris Mir | During the last decade China’s food imports grew by 21% a year. The country is running out of arable land where to farm basic food like grains and cereals or where to grow its cattle. So it’s going abroad to acquire millions of hectares of land from other countries.