China Real Estate May Face ‘Year of Recession’
By Cao Wenjiao and Denise Jia via Caixin | After years of booming growth, China’s real estate sector, a major pillar of the world’s second-largest economy, is wobbling.
growth
What If Oil Goes To $100?
Brent oil prices are up more than 30% this year and have reached levels last seen in 2014. BoAML’s team on Commodities have revised up their forecasts; they now expect Brent to peak at $95/bbl by the end of 2Q 2019. They also consider the impact on global growth of an even larger and more sustained oil spike. Specifically discuss the factors that could drive oil prices to $100/bbl, and hash out the winners and losers.
The Mutualist Roots Of Mapfre Has Not Let It Keep Up With The Rest Of The Sector
The Spanish leader in insurance has registered a modest performance of +14% in the last two years, the weakest among the insurers analysed at Alphavalue. Since August 2017, when the hurricane season began in the US, Mapfre has not been able to keep up with the rest of the sector. In Alphavalue´s estimates, the company should benefit from a first series of three consecutive years of growth in net profits in the period 2018-20.
Eurozone companies´ optimism at minimal levels
BS Markets | The growth of the Eurozone economy continued in August, although “at a slower rhythm tan in the last 18 months”. Moreover, companies´expectations of future growth have fallen to the lowest level in almost two years, according to the data of the PMI study by consultant Markit.
The Spanish economy will grow 0.7%, according to Fiscal Responsibility Watchdog
BancaMarch | The Spanish Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (AIReF) maintains buoyant expectations for the growth of the country’s economy.
The Market Risks That Can Spoil August (IV): The Yuan
Intermoney | The unanimous approval by the Senate of a law to reduce or eliminate the tariffs applied to around 1,660 products made outside the US, of which half are made in China, could be the perfect excuse for Trump to return to the charge on trade attacks on Chinese interests. However, as we have insisted over the last few weeks, the key to the summer from a Chinese perspective, could lie more in the yuan than trade issues.
Build A Stronger Eurozone’s Fiscal Buffers Or Have A Dovish Monetary Policy Forever
BoAML think that national fiscal buffers will be the only device to face the next cyclical downturn. In fact, with a fairly mild cyclical shock, the Stability and Growth Pact would be severely stressed. The solution can be a growth-stabilising euro area budget. If not, monetary policy may have limited further space.
Human Capital Contributed Around 3% To US GDP Growth Thanks To Baby Boomers
Caixabank Research consider recent trends in human capital and the outlook for the future. The quality of the US workforce has undergone a remarkable transformation: over the past 70 years, the level of training has consistently improved. However, several studies also indicate that over the next few years, the contribution of human capital to growth could be more marginal. One of the main reasons for this is the retirement of the baby boomers.
The Eurozone Joins The “Weak Q1” Club
Eurozone GDP growth in Q1 arrived in line with a GDP tracker at +0.4% on a quarterly basis estimated by AXA IM strategists (versus a consensus of 0.6%) and reflected “the weakness in industrial production in several member states during January and February.”
The word of the IMF: a more unified euro area
The IMF is forecasting global growth of over 3.9% in 2018. For the Eurozone, the forecast is for growth of 2.2%. The fifth year of economic expansion, confirming sustained and diversified growth. And the Washington-based organisation is calling for greater integration in the euro area.