hard brexit


Hard Brexit: What would it mean for European equities?

Hard Brexit: What Would It Mean For European Equities?

Patrik Lang, Head of Equities Research, Julius Baer | A further delay on 31 October seems currently the most likely scenario. General elections later on will decide the fate of Brexit. For continental European equities, we see a 10% downside in the event of a hard Brexit, mainly driven by financials and autos.


Brexit: Definitely, Maybe

Chris Iggo (Axa IM) | Suddenly the Brexit stakes have been raised. Prime Minister Johnson has made a call that convincing the world that he is prepared to leave the EU without a deal and that he is prepared to take risks with democratic and parliamentary convention are worth it if it results in the UK and the EU reaching a compromise withdrawal agreement before October 31st. It is a gamble and the tactics are being challenged by both political and public responses. Yet an alternative course of action is hard to see given the lack of credible anti-no-deal strategies so far. If Johnson’s bet pays off, the UK leaves the EU with a deal, sterling rallies, and confidence to the economic outlook can return. If not, economic and political chaos will continue and probably worsen. I said I would adhere to “Sober September” – that might prove to be very challenging!

 




Depending On Your Definition, “Hard Brexit” Now A Central Case

BoAML | Turning to the long term outlook, we still expect that leaving the EU will worsen the UK’s trading terms with EU countries more than it improves trading terms with other countries. Assuming this thesis proves correct, it will come with economic costs. The recent better-than-expected data tell us nothing about that judgment, but political events suggest to us that it is on track.