Esty Dwek (Natixis IM) | The Italian budget standoff comes under scrutiny again this week, as the European Commission could start its ‘excessive deficit procedure’ on Wednesday, since Italy hasn’t changed its 2.4% budget deficit and 1.5% growth forecasts for 2019.
In the initiative launched by the Italian authorities towards Brussels, the adequate single approach of avoiding confrontation and waiting to have all the information before commiting itself has been confirmed. The President of the Eurogroup reinforced this approach yesterday by recalling that the creation of a budget is a long process and that he will have to await the draft before giving a firm opinion.
Last week the Italian Government approved a public deficit targets of – 2.4% of GDP for 2019-21 which will be included in the draft budget for 2019. The Minister of Finance, Giovanni Tria, has been under considerable pressure from the Lega and Five Stars, and has had to accommodate their electoral promises in the budget. One of the most important consequences of developing these budget will be a ferocious debate with the EU.