Francesco Saraceno | Yesterday Mario Draghi has called once more for other policies to support the ECB titanic (and so far vain) effort to lift the eurozone economy out of its state of semi-permanent stagnation. I just have two very quick (related) comments.
Does central banks’ “communication” matter? Some analysts believe it does. Therefore, Draghi may now have to work to repair his reputation as “Super Mario”.
The Corner | April 14, 2015 | On Wednesday’s press conference, Mario Draghi is likely to indicate that ECB QE has got off to a good start operationally and price action terms in the market. Barclays analysts think cautious near-term trading is required in EGB spreads, given poor liquidity and lingering Greek worries.
The Corner | March 25, 2015 | EU data appears to show that the currency bloc is finally on the way to recovery. Figures from Spain today are likely to confirm the country’s improvement, but concerns remain about the predicament of the Greek economy.
The Corner | March 23, 2015 | Mario Draghi’s speech will be in focus as traders seek further information on the effect the ECB’s QE programme is having. This week is likely to see strong growth figures posted in the US, while inflation in the eurozone will continue to languish. Greece will again be under the microscope on international markets, as direct talks between leader Alexis Tsipras and German Chancellor Angela Merkel finally get under way.
The Corner | March 2, 2015 | Concerns about the impact that the ECB’s quantitative easing programme will have persist ahead of monthly purchase of €60 billion in sovereign bonds.
MADRID | February 27, 2015 | J.J Fernandez-Figares| Link Securities | Efforts by the ECB to inject money into the euro zone are already showing signs of impact as positive M3 figures offer encouragement ahead of March purchases of sovereign bonds.
The Corner | February 24, 2015 | Figures published today will give an indication of the current state-of-play in the euro zone, with the release of inflation statistics and final GDP figures from the German economy for 2014.
MADRID | The Corner | The European Central Bank published the legal act for purchases of asset-backed securities, setting it up to start buying the debt as soon as this Friday. Proponents say the measure “could boost the shaky eurozone recovery by reducing borrowing costs for businesses, households and governments.” According to market watchers at Link Securities, Mario Draghi will reiterate the intention of adopting new measures to boost the economic growth in the Eurozone.
MADRID | The Corner | The ECB disappointed all those who were keen to gain more concrete information on how it wants to expand its balance sheet over the coming months. Instead, Mr Draghi pointed out that inflation expectations, not balance sheet size, remain the ultimate yardstick of current and future ECB action. “We think this is the right communications strategy as we had become concerned that the ECB would set fairly explicit balance sheet targets that it might struggle to attain. The ECB offered a more cautious assessment of the growth and inflation outlook and left the door open for additional unconventional measures. Nevertheless, our base case scenario remains that sovereign QE will not be triggered,” UBS analysts commented.