monetary policy

Christine Lagarde IMF director

ECB: The Eurozone Is Not The US And The Output Gap Is Still Closing

Annalisa Piazza (MFS IM) | Despite no changes in the policy stance, the tone of the press conference was clearly more hawkish than anticipated. Lagarde noted that risks around inflation are skewed to the upside, especially in the short-term and the March projections on inflation will set the stage for future policy moves. Recent inflation developments are a reason of concern across the Governing Council as second round effects from…


Jerome Powell

Jay Powell Sets The Stage For Monetary Tightening

Juan Pedro Marín-Arrese | The hawkish and straightforward message Jerome Powell delivered yesterday surprised analysts and markets alike. They expected a non-committal press conference following a routine FOMC meeting. Instead, Powell unfolded the planned roadmap for monetary tightening. He even announced a rate hike in March, breaking the rule of refraining from providing precise tips on future action, coupled with a sharper than expected increase in federal funds rates. It…


world naranja

2022 To See Monetary Decoupling Between West And East

Alicia García Herrero (Natixis) | This has not been an easy year despite the strong fiscal and monetary support to Covid-struck economies, especially in the Western world. Such support has allowed the North American and European economies to grow above potential amid repeated waves of Covid-19 and related mobility restrictions even if less severe than in 2020. On the other hand, the emerging world has grown below potential this year…


ECB PPEP

BCE | Policy Was Left Unchanged At Today’s Meeting

Allen Goves (MFS Investment Management) | Policy was left unchanged at today’s meeting, as widely expected, yet despite rising inflation. This is because of the ECB’s stress that the current rise in inflation is likely to be transitory. Growth is still considered strong but is moderating and risks are broadly balanced. This meeting was perhaps characterized by its emphasis on inflation drivers. Importantly, the ECB continues to stress that many…


ECB bonds

ECB Members Show Their Concern About Inflation

Francisco Vidal (Intermoney) | For yet another day, the spotlight is on the words of ECB members. They give their views on their particular vision of the course of inflation, with the consequent impact on the markets. And the latter react by interpreting the statements in terms of the central bank’s speed in withdrawing its stimuli. On Thursday, the Financial Times reported Philip Lane had said privately that they expect…


ECB PPEP

Will Lagarde Dare To Move In Earnest?

JP Marín-Arrese | All was quiet on the ECB front for too long. Suddenly, last week it announced its intention to scale down the emergency asset-buying programme starting next month. While falling short of the tapering heralded weeks ago by Jerome Powell, it represents indeed a shift in the dull do-nothing approach followed for months and years. Once embracing quantitative easing, much later than other central banks, it proved unable…


chair powell

Unwinding QE More Difficult Than Expected

J.P. Marín Arrese | Jay Powell was crystal clear in Jackson Hole about his willingness to scale down QE starting by the year close. As the US economy is recovering at full steam and prices skyrocket to a 13-year record, the idea that  monetary policy will soon switch from the current over-loose stance to a more neutral one is hardly surprising. His message even sounded dovish as he cautioned against rushing into fighting inflation. He considered its current upsurge temporary, however, dismissing this upsurge might poise an…


ECB night

ECB Meeting: Policy Normalisation Is Likely To Be Slow And Gradual To Enable Ongoing Policy Support

Peter Allen Goves (MFS Investment) | The need to avoid premature tightening by the ECB and the strengthened guidance is supportive for core rates in our view. The strong association of guidance with the inflation outlook will also probably raises the prominence of the projections. Overall, the new guidance reinforces the ECB’s commitment to maintain accommodation to reach its price stability aim. Given that projections remain below target, this means…


china central bank

China Bucks The Trend By Tightening Monetary Policy

Bank lending rose by RMB 1.28 trillion, well below consensus expectations of RMB 1.56 trillion, while aggregate financing to the real economy (AFRE), which includes loans and bonds, recorded net growth of RMB 1.85 trillion (against expectations of RMB 2.25 trillion). As a result, China’s M2 money supply declined from +9.4% y-o-y in March to +8.1% y-o-y in April. It has returned to pre-Covid levels in 2018/19.


china central bank

China | Monetary Policy Challenges In The Post-Pandemic Era

JINYUE DONG & LE XIA (BBVA Research) | The PBoC started to exit the above easing measures in May 2020 when the Covid-19 pandemic got controlled in mainland China. Historically, the exit of easing monetary measures in the post-crisis time has always been a global challenge to central banks. China is not an exception in this respect. In February 2021, the normalization progress in China led to the gyration of the interbank interest rate in February 2021, just before the Chinese Lunar New Year as the investors’ fear of the authorities’ fast tightening climbed to a new high.