negative rates

Jerome Powell

The Fed would prefer not to discuss going negative

David Lafferty (Natixis) | Central banks have pinned the front end to zero – or lower – but real rates and inflation premiums have some room to rise into the recovery phase – as slow as it may be. Yields will also see some upward pressure when the Fed and other central banks eventually begin to slow QE purchases. At this point, the Fed would prefer not to discuss going negative as the overnight market recently priced. Another sell-off or prolonged shutdown might put negative rates on the table, but we’re not there yet.

 


The Cost Of Negative Rates: The Case Of The Riksbank

Caixabank Research | The experience of the Riksbank highlights the doubts over negative interest rates: despite a worsening economic outlook for Sweden, it raised the interest rate from –0.25% to 0% in December and abandoned its policy of negative rates.


European equities

The S&P 500 has gained 233% since 2010, as opposed to 92% for the MSCI Europe

Igor de Maack (Natixis) | Years of negative rates may well be coming to an end, with a reversal of investor sentiment for bonds over the last few weeks. In fact, the French 10-year rate is now verging on 0%. However, these years will leave their mark in terms of the extravagance of the monetary policies implemented for the purposes of “Saving Private Capitalism”, lost on the battlefield of excessive debt and driven into the trenches of complex finance.



Negative Rates Here, Increased Demand Over There

UBS | The recent fixed income sell -off has seen the proportion of developed market sovereign bonds trading in negative yielding territory drop to 34%. This compares to 40% at the end of June. Still, 34% is more than twice the level observed at the end of 2015.


Sub-zero returns

Financial repression

Why are interest rates so low? We have explained that the reason is the weak credit situation for financing investment.



ECB Poised To Keep Rates On Hold

As the Brexit initial turmoil little by little abates, the ECB has no immediate reason for acting. Its room for manoeuvre already seems extremely tight. Running negative rates allows a most limited scope for driving down the money price. The Euro slide provides on its own enough impetus to the economy. The case for further loosening lacks of enough ground. The wait-and-see stance by the Federal Reserve suffices to shore up the ailing pound.


Helicopter money: too complex to be deployed any time soon

Citi | ECB Executive Board member Benoit Coeuré gave an interview to Politico on March 23, published on 30 March and featuring on the ECB’s website. Mr. Coeuré begins by explaining that the package announced on March 10 was “very potent, both in intensity and sheer volume”. On the subject of monetary policy tools at the ECB’s disposal, Mr. Coeuré notes that “negative interest rates are not our main instrument, they just support our overall policy. And looking ahead, we’re not short of instruments – our choice is quite large. We will be able to deal with adverse situations if necessary”.


Negative Rates Are Not Expansionist

When there is no big demand for credit and, at the same time, the banks have little appetite to lend, they should focus on repairing balance sheets and not expanding them. And they can use those resources they hold with negative cost to repair their balance sheets.