John Bruton | It is increasingly likely that, unless things change, on January 1, 2021, we will have a no-deal Brexit. That would mean the only deal between the European Union and the United Kingdom would be the already ratified EU withdrawal agreement of 2019. Both Ireland and the European Union need their best team on the pitch as Brexit approaches the endgame.
No deal Brexit
David Alexander Meier (Julius Baer) | Thursday’s EU summit is the last date to secure a deal before Saturday’s ‘deal or delay’ deadline. Due to difficulties in finding a deal and parliamentary ratification, we rather expect a delay. We remain short-term Neutral on the pound given a delay and long-term Bullish, as the only way to Brexit is through a deal.
Patrik Lang, Head of Equities Research, Julius Baer | A further delay on 31 October seems currently the most likely scenario. General elections later on will decide the fate of Brexit. For continental European equities, we see a 10% downside in the event of a hard Brexit, mainly driven by financials and autos.
Olivia Álvarez (Monex Europe) | Driven by concerns about a no-deal Brexit, in less than a week, the pound sterling has fallen more than 2.7% against the euro, reaching its lowest levels in the last two years.
Shaun Riordan | Boris Johnson will fulfill his life-long ambition of becoming Prime Minister this afternoon. The pro-Europeans within his own Conservative Party have postponed their rebellion until after the summer. Mrs May will therefore be able to recommend Johnson to the Queen as the political leader best placed to secure a majority in the House of Commons, and therefore best able to form a new Government. But that majority is wafer thin. Even with the support of the N Ireland Unionists, his overall majority is only three. That is likely to be reduced to two following an upcoming by-election. Up to twenty Conservative MPs have indicated they could be ready to bring down the Government to avoid a no deal Brexit.