recovery


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Recovery and electoral expectations

MADRID | By Fernando G. Urbaneja | Spanish PM Mariano Rajoy faces 2015 with electoral commitments and weak prospects. The goal of the Popular Party (PP) is to reach enough votes so as to maintain a large part of its power in the Spanish regions and city councils where it has the majority. The final goal is achieving the re-election in the central government by means of achieving the recovery.


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Change of pace in Europe: Spain, Portugal, Ireland and Belgium will lead growth between 2015 and 2016

MADRID | By Julia Pastor | ECB’s Mario Draghi brought put the bleak panorama that the Eurozone’s economy is facing on the table, and we saw it again reflected in the not-so-promising September manufacturing PMI. The index came in at 50.5 compared to 50.7 in the prior month, whereas EZ Services PMI accelerated at 52.8 for September versus 53.1 in August. Even the composite index plummeted to its lowest fee in the last nine months and reached 52.3. In Germany, both manufacturing and services indexes have also decreased; while in France only manufacturing improved, although it is still contracting.


TLTRO alone might not be a game changer for Eurozone credit recovery

MADRID | The Corner | Supply and demand conditions for Eurozone credit generation are improving – this is clearly reflected in the ECB’s latest Bank Lending Survey – but the way towards a full normalisation is still long. We believe that reduced bank funding costs might support, but will not aggressively accelerate, the recovery in credit growth. 



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US residential construction recovers in July

MADRID | The Corner | After two months of decline, US construction rebounds in July at the fastest pace in eight months. As the Commerce Department reported yesterday, the number of housing starts rose 15.7% in July compared to June, reaching an annualized figure of 1.09 million units, the highest in eight months. Meanwhile, applications for building permits in the same month also advanced  8.1% to an annual rate of 1.05 million, after drops of 3.1 percent in June and 5.1 percent in May. Notably the permits to build single-family homes, a segment that accounts for three quarters of the U.S. housing market, increased in July by 0.9% to an annualized figure of 640,000, the highest since December 2013. In addition, permits for units in buildings with five units or more rose 23.6% in July to an annual rate of 382,000, representing its highest growth rate since January 2006.


Greece's return

The challenge in Greece: Funding an emerging economic recovery

ATHENS | By Jens Bastian via Macropolis | A fragile, uneven and weak recovery is gradually manifesting itself in the real economy of Greece. The recent data published by ELSTAT for the first two quarters of GDP performance in 2014 suggests that Greece is on course to register its first quarterly GDP level in positive territory in the third quarter this year.

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UBS: Data support acceleration in US real GDP growth

MADRID | The Corner | From the macroeconomic side, US data are showing a clear improvement in the economy, with the labor market growing at similar rates to those seen prior to the financial crisis and consumer confidence surging in July to the highest level since October 2007. The business results also show a positive trend with growth in earnings by 12.0% (ex-financials) and +10.0% inc. financials.


Spain’s jobs report shows a weak, uncertain but real recovery

MADRID | By Fernando G. Urbaneja | Both the evolution of the GDP and employment in 2Q confirm that the Spanish recovery has arrived: it’s a weak, subject to uncertainty one, but undeniable. Official data released on Thursday were above expectations: 400,000 new employed, 310,000 less unemployed and a crucial piece of data: nearly 100,000 more occupied Spaniards. It’s the best data of the past 26 quarters, since mid-2007. But we should not forget the poor-quality contracts nor the 2 million long-duration jobless.

 


Global growth

The world’s disappointing recovery

SINGAPORE/LONDON | By UBS analysts | Global growth has disappointed in the first half of this year. As a result, we have steadily marked down our forecasts for 2014. We now forecast global growth of 3.0% in 2014 and 3.3% in 2015 after 2.5% in 2013. At the turn of the year we forecasted 3.4% global growth for 2014 and 2015.