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US economic perspectives: Buying time

Maury N. Harris, Drew T. Matus, et al. (UBS) | The National Retail Federation (NRF) has released its estimates for a 4.1% y/y rise in holiday sales—among the stronger growth forecasts in recent years. Although sales have fallen short of NRF expectations in each of the last two years, trends in income and confidence suggest better for this year. Falling energy prices also help.