In their “European Banks: At a turning point?”, Morgan Stanley analysts explain that interest rates are still low but seem to have reached their bottom and that they don’t expect any further cuts to depo rates.
Bankinter analysis team believes that the cut in the deposit rate to -0.50% (from -0.4%) further penalises keeping excess liquidity in the ECB. Tiering (or the method of charging in tranches) only partially mitigates the impact with a volume of up to six times the coefficient of obligatory reserves (currently 1.0%) exempt. This favours banks with higher and more internationally diversified ratios of credit investment/typical resources like Banco Santander and BBVA.
Morgan Stanley | We lower profit estimates for Spanish banks at an average 4.6-5% for 2020-2021 given the sensitivity of these to a further flattening of the rate curve as a result of a more dovish ECB.
Banco Santander revealed its 1Q19 numbers. Intermediation margin (NII or margin of interest) € 8.68 + 3% yoy <€ 8.75 bn € e cons. Attributed net profit is 1.84 bn € -10.41% yoy against the 1.83 bn € estimated by the consensus, after a net charge of € 108 M for restructuring costs in the United Kingdom and Poland and assets sale. Ordinary profit has grown in seven of its ten main markets.
Marco Troiano (Scope Ratings) | We assign the rating BBB- to the AT1 bonds of 7.5% of Santander issued in February 2019 for an amount of 1.2 billion dollars.
Alphavalue | During the last decade, Banco Santander has successfully diversified constructing a portfolio of low risk/high growth activities. Although it should guarantee the longevity of the group, it has not translated into profits for smaller shareholders.
Alphavalue | Santander bank just created the Company Landmark Iberia to transfer all the land assets it has due to its exposure to the housing market.
On Tuesday Banco Santander announced that it will not exercise the repurchase of its contingent convertible bonds (CoCos) – the AT1 – of 1.5 billion euros and coupon of 6.25%. The bank, which referred to financial reasons, had already warned in its presentation of results that it would only make the call if conditions were adequate.
According to a document given by the Spanish bank to the SEC, Brexit could result in increased financial instability and reduced economic growth, as well as increased unemployment and inflation in the UK, in addition to having adverse impacts on the bank´s business.
Private equity fund Blackstone and Banco Santander have injected 300 million euros in the property fund in which both have a stake. The alliance is a mix of societies under the umbrella of parent company Project Quasar Investments 2017, which includes what was previously Banco Popular’s real estate portfolio. Its gross assets are valued at 30 billion euros, with a net value of 10 billion.