scotland

No Picture

Scotland wins the day

MADRID | J.P. Marín Arrese | Heavy turnout in the Scottish referendum ensured a clear victory for those rejecting independence. Yet, a huge share of citizens showed their readiness to switch-on the atomic bomb, regardless of the awesome consequences. 


No Picture

Morning coffee: Scotland polls and TLTRO

MADRID | The Corner | FOMC’s conclusions (the Fed is renewing its pledge on low rates) meaning little changes to the current rates scenario, the spotlight has shifted to the Scottish independence referendum (final results to be released around 5:30-6:30 GMT on Friday), which is presumably going to have an impact on European financial markets today. Also the ECB is publishing the results of its much-awaited first TLTRO operation today. It’s the most important cheap cash offer from the central lender since the beginning of the economic crisis which has been very popular in Spain and Italy. Spanish banks will aim for €30bn, Economy Minister said on Wednesday.


if no deal Brexit, pound in free fall

Scotland’s starting debt

LONDON | By UBS Global Research | While there has been considerable attention paid to the impact of an independent Scotland on British government debt ratios, the debate about independence has paid very little attention to Scotland’s starting debt. If an independent Scotland were to take a per capita share of gross debt, it would have a debt burden of around 88% of GDP (after the migration of part of Scotland’s financial sector). Scotland’s initial deficit and the set-up costs for the new state would need to be added to this number.



Scotland referendum: ‘Yes’ victory would hurt UK risk premium

MADRID | The Corner | The pound fell around 1% against the euro on Monday and the dollar after the results of the first serious poll giving the victory to “yes” in the referendum on separation for Scotland. According to the latest YouGov poll published  a day before, the support of Scottish independents would reach 51% vs 49% who are against if the undecided are excluded. UBS economist Paul Donovan commented about the risk of a narrow result in the polls in favor of remaining in the UK, similar to what happened in Quebec in 1995.