S&P 500

Markets are repricing risks and feel neglected by the Fed.

DWS: “Markets are repricing risks and feel neglected by the Fed. This could create some downward momentum”

DWS | How should a hedge fund have positioned itself if it had known the U.S. Federal Reserve’s (Fed’s) decisions and press release a day ahead of the market? Until lunchtime on Wednesday noon its staff might have reasonably concluded that the material contained preciously little actionable information. On paper, it would have all looked exactly as expected, leaving limited scope for any meaningful market reaction. This is not, of course, how things actually turned out.

 


US corporate debt could be underestimated

Stock Markets Are Not The Same As They Were A Century Ago

Comparing the average PER of a current stock market index with what it was historically is a simplistic approximation and can lead to wrong conclusions. In fact, we should take into account the differences in ROE. In the big stock market indices (S&P 500 in the US, Euro Stoxx 50 in the Eurozone) companies with a greater ROE have been gaining more weight.



stock markets indices

The Risk Inherent In multiples On Stock Markets Indices

Making judgements on “whether a market is expensive or cheap,” using aggregates of prices and earnings, is a very risky simplification. To begin with, there are companies which don’t make money or even lose it, and quite a lot of it. Responsible, professional investors don’t buy  stock markets indices, they buy shares. They don’t invest “top-down” but rather “bottom-up”.


Global Stock Markets Are Telling Us Something When They Begin To Tremble

Market commentators tell us that the price of Brent crude is dropping and indices like the S&P 500 and the Ibex 35 are falling. The reverse should be the case. Have we not been told that Spain has benefited from the decline in raw material prices?  This cuts import prices, increases export margins, reduces pressure on wages etc. But it’s not the case. Oil prices have been tumbling for the last year, and whenever these begin start to tremble so do the stock markets.


Investors

Bankinter: Spain’s Ibex to reach 12,878 points (+12%) in 2015

The Corner | March 30, 2015 | While much of the attention is focused on bonds, it should also be noted that stocks and real estate market are also worth more. How much? Bankinter analysts forecast that Spain’s Ibex will reach 12,878 points (potential + 12%) in 2015; EuroStoxx50, 4,338 (+ 18%); S&P 500, 2,333 (+ 10%). The Japanese Nikkei remains the least attractive option at 20.305 (+ 4%).


GM races to placate shareholders

WASHINGTON D.C. | March 18, 2015 | By  Pablo PardoOn December 19, 2008, George W. Bush announced that the US would allocate $13.4 billion to rescue General Motors. Between April 22 and June 1, 2009, Barack Obama provided the company with $36.1. In the end, the state ended up with a 61% of the stake of what is still the second largest car manufacturer in the world.


Earnings season: Mixed feelings on both sides of the Atlantic

MADRID | The Corner | We’re in the middle of second-quarter earnings season and companies are showing their cards to investors. Note the difference on both sides of the Atlantic: in the US, 53% of S&P500 firms have posted their results and 78% have performed better than expected (average surprise of 6%, JP Morgan analysts pointed out). EPS growth is of 11% yoy, while sales went up by 5% with 67% of companies having better than expected numbers. Meanwhile in Europe, with 152 SXXP companies having posted their results, 56% have turned in an average +0.4% EPS. Year-on-year EPS has risen by 18% (8% if we exclude financial entities), although yoy sales decreased by -2%.



S&P 500 indisputably overrated

MADRID | By Luis Arroyo | You cannot control financial stability and real economy with just one instrument. I guess the Fed is hoping for excesses to get fixed by themselves, but macro-prudential policy is failing again. Markets are giving their backs to reality. The bad news is that a sudden stop would put us all in hell.