Recently there’s again been talk of a two-speed Europe. During the mini-summit two weeks ago, Merkel, Hollande, Italy, Rajoy, gave the green light to this latest spin. The Spanish PM has said the country would be at the nucleus of this.
Spain can’t imitate Germany in a context in which Europe is a closed zone where countries export to each other. And Spain is unlikely to become another Germany because the Spanish production model is still based on low productivity.
I can tell you that the most eminent economists in Spain have continued to be wrong-footed since before the crisis. They are still clamouring for debt reduction, for a return to austerity, when what is slowly killing Europe is precisely that, the austerity spreading from Germany.
José Luis M. Campuzano (Spanish Banking Association) | Spanish lenders’ bad loans fell 18.2% to 118.159 billion euros in June from a year earlier, registering their lowest level since 2010, according to the Bank of Spain.
A recent European Commission report on innovation indicators highlights that Spain is the third country, along with Lithuania, which has fallen behind the most in matters of innovation – after Romania and Hungary. Since the start of the crisis in 2008, Spain has lost an average of 0.8% annually in R&D output.
The PSOE party, with 137 years of history, has already had four leaders so far this century, none of whom have consolidated their position. That said, Rodriguez Zapatero succeeded in heading up two relative majority governments and two minority administrations between 2004 and 2012.
Ten million Spaniards watched the most important debate between candidates from the four parties which could form a Government in Spain on Monday night. And yet the participants did not clarify the most important point: Will there be a Government after the elections on June 26?
The thesis is reasonable and well-known: greater growth, lower deficit. But what happened in 2015 seems to corroborate another idea: a larger deficit (-5%) fuels the biggest growth in Europe (3.2%). So the government unilaterally raises the 2016 deficit target from 2.8% to 3.6%, while Brussels is going for 3.9%.
In Sober Look, Marcello Minenna gives us a clue about a possible new breach in the euro’s structure. A few years ago (2011-2012), when the euro was going through its worst time, one of the consequences was that the central banks in the peripheral countries increased their debt position with TARGET2.
Isolux is a Spanish midcap which operates in the construction business and in the maintenance of large infrastructures in over 40 countries. It has been forced to reach an agreement with its principal creditors to avoid bankruptcy.