The Spanish rescue can wait
Madrid has many reasons to remain cautious on the merits of embarking itself on a no-return ticket to euro-assistance. It doesn’t know for sure the price to pay and the concrete benefits to be reaped.
Madrid has many reasons to remain cautious on the merits of embarking itself on a no-return ticket to euro-assistance. It doesn’t know for sure the price to pay and the concrete benefits to be reaped.
MADRID | For all the efforts they undertake to reinforce their solvency and profitability, troubled banks are not likely to survive unless they merge into solid groups. But economist JP Marín Arrese wonders if public money to maintain them artificially alive should not be entitled to a better use.
Spain is in recession and will remain so with budget reforms yet to bite, export markets contracting and unemployment rising, indicate analysts at Grant Thornton. But that is one of the coin sides. Have a look at the brighter spots.
Spanish current account data gives signs of economic strength, but the global economy suffers from too much weak activity, a clear threat to Madrid’s reform efforts. Talk of bailout will not go away any time soon.
Large institutional investors such as Pimco have publicly acknowledged their interest in Spanish debt, precisely because of the ECB buying program, but it remains to be seen whether the foreign interest is consolidated.
In economist Luis Arroyo’s view, the Spanish Treasury would have made two mistakes that hit hard the economy: too high a VAT rate, and too expensive energy bills.
Non-resident investors have extended the maturities of their holdings of Spanish debt, according to the August data released by the Bank of Spain.
The day a new EU summit began, financial reports from Madrid poured in with a common alert: the Spanish economy needs fixing and the markets will keep watching how the Rajoy government’s reforms advance.
The bailout that would await the Spanish government’s request is surrounded by many suppositions over its conditionality and how the rescue fund would intervene. But the recent decision of Moody’s keeping Spain’s bonds on investing grades has made investors feel more confident.
Germany isn’t just refusing to play the paymaster’s role, it effectively is barring the way towards a banking and a true economic union for the euro zone. The upcoming summit could be one more missed chance to fix the common currency area.