Yves Bonzon (Julius Baer) | On the fiscal side all countries might provide support measures that are quantitatively and qualitatively strong enough to ensure recovery when the containment ends. The way the required transfers from governments to their private sectors are financed, in essence the chosen mix of tax increases, borrowing from private savings and monetisation, will play a determining role on the recovery capacity of different countries and regions.
S&P has revised Spain 2020 GDP downwards from +1.5% to -1.8%, rebounding +3.1% in 2021, +1.4% in 2022 and +1.5% in 2023. Meanwhile, estimates for the unemployment rate are 14.6% in 2020 compared to 14.1% in 2019, 15.6% in 2021, 15.2% in 2022 and 15.0% in 2023. For its part, Moody’s does not expand on this information; it merely confirms its ratings and outlook.
The International Monetary Fund forecast that Spain’s economy will deepen its expected slowdown in 2020, with growth of less than the 1.6% estimated in January. This is due to the impact of the coronavirus outbreak, and especially to the drop in tourism demand. “Clearly the economy is already affected, the extent of this impact depends on the duration of the outbreak,” Andrea Schaechter, the IMF’s chief of mission, explained in a conference call.
The European Commission (EC) urged the Spanish government to “carefully” evaluate the potential impact of any modifications to the 2012 labour reform and to “preserve “the most positive aspects of it, which “supported solid job creation” during the recovery phase. Citing a recent study from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), it states that “the labour reforms adopted in 2012-13 in response to the crisis have played an important role in promoting a rich recovery in employment which began in 2014.”
Joan Tapia | The latest data indicate that the economic slowdown in Spain is showing some signs of reversing. That is, the slowdown is slowing down and that the economic situation in the coming months may be somewhat better than expected by some of the most pessimistic analysts. The misfortune is that this slight recovery of economic optimism has no correspondence in the political field, as the result of the 10-N elections and the subsequent movements of the parties indicate a very difficult governance.
Fernando G. Urbaneja | The risk of recession is beginning to be seen in the data: in exports, as the outer circle of defence. If Germany sells less it also buys less; the powerful Spanish car components and machine tool industries are seeing a fall in orders and noting it is the time to cut back and not expand. Winter is coming and the house is not prepared.
CaixaBank Research | The strong growth in international tourism which Spain has experienced is having a positive impact on economic growth and employment. However, it is also generating impacts on the resident population which are not always positive, as shown by the increasing congestion in certain parts of Spain caused by the high numbers of tourists. This has revived the debate over the need to move to a higher quality of tourism.
What do we understand by quality tourism?
Miguel Navascués | The winner of the recent elections, Pedro Sánchez, defined his objective in the previous debates with great precision: to end the increasing inequality in Spain. But inequality is not the main problem in Spain, it does not even have the nature of a problem. To begin, it is not increasing.
Composite and Services PMI, which is elaborated by the consultancy IHS Marlon, exceeded expectations for Spain. The PMI for services rose from 54.5 in February to 56.8 in March compared to the expected 55.
More than 93% of German companies believe that the economic situation in Spain is ‘good’ or ‘satisfactory’, 25 points higher than two years ago. This is according to the bi-yearly survey “German Companies in Spain” published by German Chamber of Commerce for Spain in collaboration with the IESE Business School.