Spain held its third national election since 2015 on Sunday. The socialist party won by a clear margin but fell short of an absolute majority in the national Parliament and will need to find coalition partners to form a government. “We will not put a sanitary cordon to anybody. Our only condition will be to respect the Constitution and advance in social justice,” PM Pedro Sánchez said.
Alvise Lennkh & Dennis Shen (Scope Ratings) | Political events in Spain (undecided), Portugal (stable) and Italy (divided) have implications for the three countries, visible in their divergent capacity to reduced the high levels of public debt.
Joan Tapia (Barcelona) | As I write this article, three polls have been published – in three Spanish newspapers ABC, El Periodico de Catalunya and Confidencial – which practically agree. If there are no changes in the twenty days that remain before the elections, PSOE will be the largest party with more than 130 seats, far distant from the PP which will remain on 80-90 seats.
Ana Fuentes | Spain and the US are the only developed countries which are going to grow more than 2% in 2019 according to the IMF. On the case of Spain, exports, which were driving the country’s growth, have weakened, but domestic demand has grown. The risk premium is just below 100 basis points, compared to Italy’s 250 b.p. But beyond the data, the analysis is currently conditioned by the effect of the electoral campaign.
Spanish PM Pedro Sánchez called snap elections for April 28th after holding an extraordinary cabinet meeting in Madrid. The ballot follows Sanchez’s defeat in parliament over his 2019 fiscal plans. Madrid avoids May 26 “Super Sunday,” with local, regional and EU elections the same day.
Ten million Spaniards watched the most important debate between candidates from the four parties which could form a Government in Spain on Monday night. And yet the participants did not clarify the most important point: Will there be a Government after the elections on June 26?
Spain depends on Europe, but in a rather odd way, because Europe is a carcass without a head and without any initiative. Europe has left us in doubt over our deficit because we were in an electoral period. And this brutal wear and tear, which has not been good for us, on the contrary, has not ended. After June 27, whatever happens, the government will be even weaker, whichever it is.
Many people feared that the outcome of the December 20 elections in Spain would be difficult to manage. But the final situation is much worse than expected. As soon as the recount began after the voting, the conservatives of Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy’s Popular Party (PP) lost their hopes of forming a majority government with Citizens (Ciudadanos). Spain is now, undeniably, facing a period of difficult coalition-building after yesterday’s elections. And this is a very worrisome situation for the country as uncertainty is likely to increase, affecting the mood of investors and companies.
Fernando Barciela | Passos Coelho won the elections in Portugal with 38.6% of the vote, but lost his majority in parliament. Even though he has been tasked with forming a new government, Portuguese left parties have adopted a pragmatic approach which makes an agreement between the Socialist Party, Communist Party and Bloco de Esquerda increasingly likely. For the time being, they have already appointed Eduardo Ferro Rodrigues, a socialist, as the President of the parliament.
MADRID | March 23, 2015 | By Sean Duffy | Unemployment levels in the region are the highest in Spain. The winning socialist party has been involved in serious corruption cases, yet it managed to kick off a year of crucial elections in the country by holding on to the territory they have governed for 35 years.