Fernando G. Urbaneja | A week ago, I pointed out as a hypothesis that “as it seems unlikely, as unassuming, another failure to form a government, new possibilities for pacts are opened that months ago were impossible because of the stubbornness of their leaders. In early 2020 these impossible pacts may be inevitable.” I made a mistake in judgement. No need to wait until 2020, new possibilities for pacts have appeared. The scenario before the next legislature in Spain is much more flexible than the previous one.
Fernando G. Urbaneja | Spanish politicians have been unable to interpret last April´s elections and, having dissolved parliament, have summoned Spaniards to vote again on 10 November. In principle it seems that the new parliament will look much like the old one, but the latest polls detect some changes among the voters.
J.P. Marín Arrese | This motto struck by Bertrand Russell galvanised those opposed to the nuclear weapons race. In his view, surrendering to communism stood as a less harmful choice than the dire prospect of massive immolation in a new world war. Fortunately, we skipped confronting the bad and worst alternatives Mr Russell thought would inevitably emerge.
Ana Fuentes | Spanish politics has settled on a disturbing calendar. This week the government of the social democrat Pedro Sánchez must clarify whether he will reach an agreement with Unidas Podemos or if he will call elections on November 10. It would be the fourth general election in five years. Time plays against and the feeling of uncertainty weighs more and more each day.
Spain held its third national election since 2015 on Sunday. The socialist party won by a clear margin but fell short of an absolute majority in the national Parliament and will need to find coalition partners to form a government. “We will not put a sanitary cordon to anybody. Our only condition will be to respect the Constitution and advance in social justice,” PM Pedro Sánchez said.
Alvise Lennkh & Dennis Shen (Scope Ratings) | Political events in Spain (undecided), Portugal (stable) and Italy (divided) have implications for the three countries, visible in their divergent capacity to reduced the high levels of public debt.
Joan Tapia (Barcelona) | As I write this article, three polls have been published – in three Spanish newspapers ABC, El Periodico de Catalunya and Confidencial – which practically agree. If there are no changes in the twenty days that remain before the elections, PSOE will be the largest party with more than 130 seats, far distant from the PP which will remain on 80-90 seats.
Ana Fuentes | Spain and the US are the only developed countries which are going to grow more than 2% in 2019 according to the IMF. On the case of Spain, exports, which were driving the country’s growth, have weakened, but domestic demand has grown. The risk premium is just below 100 basis points, compared to Italy’s 250 b.p. But beyond the data, the analysis is currently conditioned by the effect of the electoral campaign.
Spanish PM Pedro Sánchez called snap elections for April 28th after holding an extraordinary cabinet meeting in Madrid. The ballot follows Sanchez’s defeat in parliament over his 2019 fiscal plans. Madrid avoids May 26 “Super Sunday,” with local, regional and EU elections the same day.
Ten million Spaniards watched the most important debate between candidates from the four parties which could form a Government in Spain on Monday night. And yet the participants did not clarify the most important point: Will there be a Government after the elections on June 26?