Joan Tapia | The Bank of Spain, by raising its growth forecast for 2019 from 2.2% to 2.4%, has confirmed that the Spanish economy has begun the year better than expected. Thus are undone the catastrophic forecasts of some analysts and the political right.
Joan Tapia ( Barcelona) | The Spanish economy is doing somewhat better than expected, but both the slowdown and the extent to which governability depends on Podemos are worrying. We have spent weeks talking about the slowdown, but in the end GDP growth for the first quarter was 0.7%, compared to 0.6% in the last quarter of 2018 and 0.5% in the quarter before that.
CaixaBank Research | The Spanish economy has spent four consecutive years growing above the Eurozone average. At the same time, the savings rate has fallen to historic lows. Although this would seem to suggest that households have limited room to manoeuvre in their consumption decisions if the economic context worsens, it is still too soon to draw this conclusion.
Ana Fuentes | Spain and the US are the only developed countries which are going to grow more than 2% in 2019 according to the IMF. On the case of Spain, exports, which were driving the country’s growth, have weakened, but domestic demand has grown. The risk premium is just below 100 basis points, compared to Italy’s 250 b.p. But beyond the data, the analysis is currently conditioned by the effect of the electoral campaign.
Bankia Estudios | Although the Spanish economy continued generating financing capacity, it finds itself on a downward trend, burdened by the deterioration of the external environment, so that it closed last year at post 2014 lows (1.5% of GDP). The correction of the public deficit has been amply compensated for by the deterioration in the financial position of the private sector, above all of households which, with savings rate at historical lows, have registered financing needs for for the second consecutive year.
Fernando G. Urbaneja | John De Zulueta, President of the Circle of Businessmen, believes that Spanish society should aspire to reduce unemployment to 5%, and argues that this would liberate more than €26 billion for savings and investment, public or private, in short for a greater prosperity.
Luis Alcaide | Spanish government with its parliamentary minority has administered, but without exposing itself to dangerous risks difficult. It has pushed its budget, with its own proposals, knowing it will not be approved. But as Groucho Marx said “here is another one”. The increase in the minimum wage has already shown their socialist colours. We need to continue to take care of the economy. It is not that easy, but not that hard either.
Juan Carlos Martínez Lázaro in The Conversation | The 2019 budget is very well designed from a political point of view, as it is a tool for prolonging the legislature. More questionable is that this budget will be a tool for “driving productivity and strengthening solid growth”. Many more things would be needed to transform the Spanish productive model which, although it hurts us, remains the same as what we had before the crisis.
Francisco Vidal (Intermoney) | In yoy terms, Spain did not grow at the initially targeted 3% and 2.7% during the first two quarters, but it did at 2.8% and the 2.5%, respectively. Therefore, the growth figures begin to signal a certain moderation and show the maturity of the economic cycle.
Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez this Wednesday will attend a meeting organised by the American Chamber of Commerce in Spain (AmChamSpain) during the General Assembly of the UN, together with over 20 leaders of major multinationals, US banks and major investment funds. At the moment, Sánchez has already had the opportunity to greet US President Trump.