TLTRO 2020

euro BCE

European Rates Watch: Three scenarios for 2020

BofA| We present three scenarios for the ECB’s balance sheet in 2020 based on TLTROs and APP projections. At the top end, we estimate the ECB’s balance sheet to reach a record high; at the bottom end, we estimate a small decline. Banks’ interest in TLTRO III would be crucial in determining the actual outcome.