trade war

Don’t trade the trade war

Yves Bonzon (Julius Baer) | It is my long-held view that political noise is an exogenous factor that is hard to time. As long as we can remain sufficiently confident that the external shock is not triggering a systemic crisis or a recession, we must stay focused on the fundamentals and resist the temptations of exploiting the irrationality of a whipsawing market. And I still see a wealth of factors favouring a long-term uptrend of equities in a low-growth and low-inflation world.

 


Jerome Powell

Jerome Powell’s Penelope tactics

J. P. Marín-Arrese | Once again, Jerome Powell played down the need for monetary easing in the press conference following the Fed’s rate cut decision. His unconvincing delivery led Mr Trump to heap scorn on his uninspiring performance. For once, his bitter recriminations were fully justified.



EU perfect storm

Enjoy the holidays: Autumn could get nasty

Shaun Riordan │Many of us are already enjoying our summer holidays. Others are packing now, looking forward to relaxing on the beach, or in the mountains. Wherever we are taking our holidays we should make the most of them. A perfect storm is brewing which could hit Europe hard in the autumn, with devasting economic and political consequences.


US China relations

Trade & Tariffs: A Wider View

David F. Lafferty (Natixis) | Volatility has returned and the red hot stock market that began the year has now downshifted closer to neutral. While the macro data continues to be lackluster – consistent with our view that the global economy is decelerating towards potential – much of the recent malaise has been driven by the on-again, now off-again US/China trade negotiations.


Ibex 35 profits (-13,6%), marked by banking sector, macro slowdown and emerging markets

Santander Corporate & Investment | The publication of results is nearing its end, and European company profits have shown resilience in face of a global environment dominated by uncertainty: the trade war, volatility in emerging markets and weakness in their currencies, Brexit, the growth of populism etc. Spanish companies are very exposed to international markets, given that only a third of their benefits come from the domestic market.


Some takeaways from Xi Jinping’s visit to France and Italy and ideas for the EU-China summit

Alicia Garcia Herrero (Natixis/Bruegel) | Only a few days before Li Keqiang’s official visit to Brussels for the EU-China summit on April 2019, Xi Jinping has conducted his second trip to Southern Europe in only five months. Such a keen interest in Southern Europe is hard to understand, especially if one considers that Chinese high level officials are busy negotiating with the US to reach a deal to halt the trade war.



Trade war ceasefire better than expected

Trade War Ceasefire Better Than Expected

Wang Tao via Caixin | The meeting between Xi and Trump on Dec. 1 turned out better than expected. According to both the White House statement and Chinese official reports, both sides agreed to enter into immediate negotiations on a broad range of structural issues in the next 90 days, and not impose additional tariffs in the meantime.


What to expect from US-China Trade War? Some ideas from a European perspective

Alicia García Herrero | 2018 will be recalled as the year in which the US wake up to China’s economic power through a trade war. The question to ask ourselves now is how this may affect Europe. The first issue to realize is that European and US exports into China are very similar, which points to a potential substitution of American products in the Chinese market but also the other way around, namely substituting Chinese exports into the US by European ones.