Ukraine

Morning coffee: Germany’s ZEW, UK inflation, and much more

MADRID | The Corner | Don’t expect big changes in stock markets’ behaviour today: everyone is waiting for the main events of the week, that is, any move from the US Federal Reserve (FOMC meeting ends on Wednesday) and the Scotland referendum on Thursday. Just note that Germany is releasing ZEW index today, which gauges big investors and analysts’ confidence in the EU’s main economy. In the UK we’ll have consumer prices for August.

 


In depth- Russia: sanctions for peace

BRUSSELS | By Jacobo de Regoyos | Europe’s 28 have unanimously requested at their recent summit to the Commission to prepare new economic sanctions against Russia, which will be triggered if the tension in Eastern Ukraine is not reduced. “Further significant steps,” is written on the statement. But nobody really knows how far can go the difficult consensus knitting machine that the European Union has become, divided between the dread to Russia felt by Eastern countries and the economic interests that grip the continental West. (Note from the editor: The cartoon above was published in Chinese official newspaper China Daily).


No Picture

Markets welcome Eurozone economic ‘bad news’

MADRID | By J. J. Fdez-Figares (LINK) | Stock markets face today a new week in which geopolitical conflicts, especially in Ukraine, and macroeconomic data that will be announced during the day will monopolize the attention of investors. Although we expect trading volumes remain low, typical of summer dates, we do expect a slight rise in volatility, especially given the current stage of confusion, both in the geopolitical and economic environment that financial markets are facing.


Germany’s domestic demand might be taking the helm

BERLIN | By Alberto Lozano | At the end of the week, good news are coming from Germany’s trade data. After calendar and seasonal adjustment, German imports rose by 4.5% on the month, rebounding from a sharp fall in May (-3.4%) with the highest month-on-month increase since November 2010. In addition, German exports increased by 0.9%, narrowing the criticised surplus to 16.2 billion euros from 18.8 billion the previous month.




Risk: Geography trumps Economy

WASHINGTON | By Pablo Pardo | Geopolitics have returned with a vengeance in Europe right when Barack Obama’s economist view of international relations seemed to be on track with the negotiations for the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and the Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP). The IMF warns that geopolitical risk is back on stage.


European banks: How concerned should they be of Russia-Ukraine conflict?

MADRID | The Corner |  The escalation of the crisis in Ukraine has led to sharp asset prices and currency volatility with capital outflows from the region, particularly from Russia and of course Ukraine itself. UBS points out that the European banks within their coverage present “a meaningful exposure: the loans in Russia and Ukraine amount to over €60bn before taking into considerations any investment banking activity.”


“Ukraine sees EU as governance model”

BRUSSELS | By Jacobo de Regoyos | After Mr Poroshenko’s victory in Ukraine elections, expectations have risen to end the profound civil unrest. And many citizens are “identifying the EU with governance quality,” former head of the Spanish diplomacy (2002-04) and MEP Ana Palacio pointed out. She just came back from Kieve, where she was part of an international poll observers’ mission together the former US Secretary of State Madeleine Allbright.


No Picture

The withered EU recovery

BRUSSELS | By Jacobo de Regoyos | The euro zone’s GDP is to grow by 1.2% in 2014 and by 1.7% in 2015, the European Commission forecasts, while the whole of the EU will do by 1.6% and 2%, respectively. Even if Brussels rather thinks recovery is firmly rooted and it must protect it from gloomy predictions, the truth is that last data are showing an economy that is not really taking-off.