Benjamin Cole via Historinhas | There is a rough consensus among US macroeconomists that topics for discussion are the bad minimum wage, the virtues of free trade, and inflation.
AXA IM | Yet when looking at the US economy we see low unemployment, continued strong job gains, increased personal income and rising core inflation. The traditional end-of-cycle dynamics (rapid increase in wage costs, monetary tightening, reduced profitability) are not screaming “recession” at us.
BARCLAYS | In our view, achieving the FOMC’s target of 2% PCE inflation may require a substantial undershoot on the unemployment rate ( to 4% if not below ). Should the unemployment rate remain near current levels or should inflation expectations drift lower, the FOMC would be unlikely to hit its inflation target over the foreseeable future.
There is a definite clash between investors and economists over the US economy. According to Intermoney’s Spanish analysts, markets are looking for reasons to take apart the thesis about the country’s resilient activity, arguing that moderate growth is insufficient. Then there are the economic purists, including many Fed members, who are confident the US recovery is sustainable.
And what if there is no lift-off in September?
US consumer confidence surged to 101.5 in August thanks to the positive evolution of the labour market.
FOMC members need more evidence that inflation is moving toward their goal and the improvement in the labour market is sufficient and sustainable.
An upcoming Fed interest rate hike now seems to be one of markets’ main focal points and concerns.