Ignacio de la Torre | The ECB’s deposit rate, which is now at -0.4%, will move to -0.2% during 2019 and later to 0%. At the same time, during the second half of 2019 the logical thing is for the ECB to begin to raise interest rates. These two factors should fuel a progressive rise in the Euribor from the summer of next year.
Markets are currently looking to the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) September policy meeting, scheduled for tomorrow and Wednesday. Given the Fed’s statement at its June 2017 policy meeting, the balance sheet reduction should begin gradually at USD 10 billion per month.
US Fed chair Janet Yellen and ECB President Mario Draghi will both be speaking at the Jackson Hole conference later this week. They will be under close scrutiny from investors for any clues on future monetary policy decisions. Analysts believe the Fed should matter more than the ECB at this week’s event.
At Jackson Hole, Janet Yellen dwelt extensively on the challenges raised by low neutral rates, recognizing the need to broaden the unconventional toolkit for compensating for the subdued impact rate cuts might have in future. By hinting the Fed should reinforce its weaponry, just in case there is an unexpected and most unlikely bout of recession, Janet Yellen is sending the wrong message.
The Corner | April 7, 2015 | European markets reopen this morning, with three areas of specific interest likely to dominate events on trading floors. The first, will be the continued wrangling between Greece and its creditors, with hopes for a deal becoming increasingly slim as the acrimony between the various parties seemingly increased over the weekend. On Wall Street, quarterly results presentations will commence, while traders will also be closely monitoring a swathe of data which may offer an insight as to the future direction of the Fed’s monetary policy.
The Corner | March 27, 2015 | Data from Europe has shown that the cost of imports have risen for the eurozone’s largest economy, Germany, spelling good news for the country’s partners within the currency union. In the US, data released today will be poured over by Fed chairwoman, Janet Yellen, at a press briefing scheduled for later this evening.
The Corner | March 16, 2015 | The week ahead is likely to be dominated by the FOMC meeting in the US. Market watchers are expecting some movement on the semantics of pronouncements by the US Fed. In essence, any change in language will signal that a rates hike from the central bank is drawing closer.
MADRID | The Corner | February 25, 2015 | Spanish telecom giant Telefonica reported a drop of 34.7% in net profit, although investors celebrated revenue picture brightening up. Elsewhere, the Spanish Producer Price Index falls again, registering a drop of 2.8% for January.
SAO PAOLO | By Marcus Nunes via Historinhas | Before it was Peter Coy with John Maynard Keynes Is the Economist the World Needs Now. Now it´s Anatole Kaletsky with The takeaway from six years of economic troubles? Keynes was right: The main lesson is that government decisions on taxes and public spending have turned out to be more important as drivers of economic activity than the monetary experiments with zero interest rates and quantitative easing that have dominated media and market attention.