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How a government shutdown affects the economy

Crédito y Caución Forecasts A 4% Increase In Insolvencies In The United States

Trade barriers are causing more insolvencies in the agricultural sector, while the retail sector is vulnerable to rising import costs. Crédito y Caución expects the United States to deepen its slowdown in 2020. The Spanish credit insurer expects GDP growth of 1.7%, largely supported by private consumption in the face of weak investment, public spending and exports. Although household finances are in better shape than a decade ago, among companies there has been an increase in debt and a deterioration in their credit capacity.





Italian Banks: Definite source of contagion

Italy is threatening us with another time bomb. The country’s banks have 360 billion euros of doubtful loans and the EU (that is to say the sinister Eurogroup), as intelligent as ever, is pressuring for the bail-in rules, to which ultraliberal & co are so addicted, to be implemented by the book.


Coal: A Silent Comeback

Julius Baer Research | The past years’ least loved commodity has made a silent comeback. Coal prices are up more than 30% from the earlier year lows. Northwest European coal import prices, the leading benchmark, trade above USD 55 per tonne. The comeback is in part related to the oil and natural gas price rally.


Don’t Worry, Corporate Leverage Only Just Back To Level Of 2007

AXA IM | Companies have re-leveraged their balance sheets since the global financial crisis (GFC), driven by low borrowing costs. Although heightened, corporate leverage is not currently excessive in developed markets, although we see signs of concern in emerging markets. In this note we assess whether we should be concerned about corporate leverage at current levels.



In a Post- Obama World

Jarno Lang | Obama is not only a pop-cultural phenomenon, but also a pragmatic leader. His successor will have to deal with a worldwide net of dependencies.


Trump's victory day

US: The “Trumpism” To Come

The big hope of political self-starters like Donald Trump are those voters without a university education, once members of the US middle-class, who accounted for 36% of the electorate in the last elections.