Global growth will not move from 3.2% in 2019, 2012-2016 levels

Macroeconomists at Morgan Stanley have updated their estimates and believe that global growth will remain frozen at this level for the rest of 2019.

With growth of 3.2% yoy, this returns us to the levels in which were stuck in the period 2012-2016. Apart from this, the risks remain clearly on the downside and if trade tensions continue we could end up in a recession within three quarters. Given that central bank monetary policy can only mitigate the impact of trade tensions up to a certain point, the key factor will be how these tensions develop from now on.