MADRID | The Corner | Spain will complete a first payment of the EU loan for the rescue of its financial system amounting to 1.3 billion euros, even if the first payment of interests was scheduled for 2022. Severely hit by the economic crisis, in 2012 the country took a nearly €42 bn loan of the €100 bn line arranged by the EU to bail its banks.
MADRID | The Corner | It’s not only about China or the US. Housing prices are well above their historical averages in many countries such as Poland, Turkey or Brazil. And that could mean big trouble for those economies, some of which need to assess their lack of capacity, like the UK. This time the EU’s peripherals are following the opposite trend, with home prices falling 7% in Greece, 6.6% in Italy and 5% in Spain in 2013. The graph shows home prices’ y-o-y evolution in 4Q13.
MADRID | The Corner | No matter whether they lend the funds on to the private sector, TLTRO is likely to be an attractively priced source of funding for banks, especially in the eurozone’s periphery. For those lenders “the costs of TLTRO could be as much as 109-114bp below equivalent wholesale funding for four years, or 68-73bp for two years if they do not increase net lending to the private sector,” an UBS report says. That being said, analysts aren’t sure this is particularly going to boost credit lending. In the graph you can see the dismal evolution of M3 in the 18 single currency area “Shame on the ECB, which has acted behind the curve as always,” The Corner senior economist Miguel Navascués states.
LONDON | By Kyohei Morita and Yuichiro Nagai at Barclays | The Abe administration is currently aiming to reach a Cabinet decision on its new growth strategy and “big bone” economic and fiscal reform plans around end-June. The discussions are far-reaching, but from the perspective of market participants, we believe there are four near-term focal points: 1) corporate taxes; 2) labor market reforms; 3) reforms to the pension system, including the Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF); and 4) special national strategy zones. Here we focus on corporate taxes, likely the only subject of concrete discussion for the markets in June.
MADRID | By Francisco López | The Spanish economy is finally growing and creating more jobs than expected, according to leading analysts. Savings Bank Foundation Funcas upgraded its GDP forecast for 2014, from 1.2% to 1.4%. Afi and Asempleo released the report “Labor market advance” with encouraging insights: employment is likely to rise at 1.3% y-o-y pace in August. Total active population will be 17.46 million by then, 220.000 more than the prior year.
COPENHAGUEN | By Peter Ludgreen via Caixin | Despite recent moves by the European Central Bank – one of them historic – it will continue to fight against very low inflation and growth. [Cartoon published by The Japan Times]
MADRID | The Corner | After a sluggish start, growth seems to pick up in the euro area. The 18 countries sharing the common currency showed an industrial production rise of +0.8% in Apr 2014 over Mar 2014, and +1.4% over Apr 13, according to Eurostat.
MADRID | The Corner | Head of Economics at the International Energy Agency remarked that “the investment in renewables in Europe has tripled the US’ investment in the entire shale gas production.” Prices are 20% below the right level to recover the cost of new investments due to the existence of overcapacity and subsidised prices in renewables.
MADRID | The Corner | The European Union may get tough on its country members having sweetheart tax deals with global corporations. So far Ireland (and possibly Luxembourg and the Netherlands soon) will have to submit information about its fiscal arrangements granted to multinationals like Apple, Amazon or Starbucks. The move came after last year the US Senate accused Ireland of giving a special fiscal treatment to Apple. Where are the loopholes?
MADRID | By Francisco López | It is not the first time economists, analysts and authorities recently talk about a possible bubble in the debt markets. But the latest, strong drops in peripheral bonds, in all-time minimums, have prompted alarms: there is too much euphoria and fixed-income market’s last moves doesn’t make sense.