World economy


Meet the 2020 Chinese consumers: they will transform their economy

BEIJING | By the year 2020, private consumption will account for a 45% of the GDP (33% in 2010) becoming the main driver of growth of the Chinese economy. This significant increase will be due to a change in consumption patterns, as it is noticed in a report recently released by McKinsey consultancy group “Meet the 2020 Chinese consumer”. But how to fit consumption into the busy schedule of the ideal…

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Wednesday’s graphic: the rat behind US employment numbers

Barclays analysts’ sent a warning about expectations over US employment data, which experts do not quite think are accurate. Ahead of the publication of official figures next Friday, here is a line we mustn’t forget: the white line depicting small and medium companies’ intentions of hiring. “Upcoming employment data could reveal the actual situation of the US economy,” the Barclays team said. “During February, we have noticed that employment numbers…


Long read | JP Morgan’s Colin Fenton (II): “EU secondary oil refineries to revive”

WASHINGTON | Second part of our conversation with Colin Fenton, global head of Commodities Research and Strategy at J.P. Morgan. What will be the effect of the closing of Iranian exports to Europe. Will it take a lot of time or effort to adapt European oil refineries to other types of oil? It always take some time to adapt, and reorientation of supply pathways, especially with trade barriers, tends to have…

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Long read | JP Morgan’s Colin Fenton: “Oil price $130 per barrel by 2014”

WASHINGTON | Colin Fenton is the global head of Commodities Research and Strategy at J.P. Morgan. Fenton believes that there is margin for higher energy prices, with limited economic damage. Brent and WTI are behaving virtually like “two different commodities”, as one trader put it last week. Asia, tied to Brent oil, has relatively strong oil demand and limited supply, while the US is experiencing an energy production renaissance in the context…

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Putin’s rouble: too good to be true?

LONDON | Russian presidential election on Monday arose more questions than certainties, from politics to the country’s economy. As international observers cast a long shadow over the fairness and transparency of the process, thousands of Russians demonstrated to challenge Vladimir Putin’s victory, crowding into a central Moscow square to chant slogans against the former Federal Security Services director. Despite democratic concerns, Putin has once again grabbed the power in Russia….


China can no longer ignore its economic weaknesses

BEIJING | China’s belief that its model of development is legitimate is grounded on the fact that last decades’ rampant economic growth has been possible thanks to the very characteristics that define it. The leadership was convinced that, under such path, success was granted regardless of the fact that they were ignoring certain factors linked to aperture and development. They did not consider defining points as long as there was…


Schroders: Japan’s rebound due to energy savings and public spending

LONDON | After the earthquake hit, the longer-term worry for both the equity market and the economy was that earnings power of Japanese companies had been severely damaged. But Investment house Schroders released Friday a note saying the worse scenario has been averted. Shogo Maeda, Head of Japanese Equities, confirmed that “corporate earnings have shown, and are further expected to show, a significant comeback during 2011. Corporate Japan continues to advance as historically high levels…


US GDP in 1Q12, seriously injured

By Tania Suárez, in Madrid | Wall Street has been weighed down by a worse than expected purchasing managers index of manufacturing sectors or manufacturing ISM (Dow Jones: +0,33%; S&P 500: +0,33%; Nasdaq: +0,39%), which has disappointed both in its final reading and in its composition. Furthermore, the weak data of personal earnings and expenses in American families cast doubts regarding 1Q12 consumption. In fact, experts at Barclays point out: “we…

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Bernanke 1, Draghi 0

By Luis Arroyo, in Madrid | The US economy is on its way up to the growth heaven while others, like Europe, live under the knife. Broad money or M3 volumes have increased in the US by 10pc. In terms of what it is strictly required, the Federal Reserve is fulfilling its duties. The broad money supply includes factors of money supply and money and credit demand, which means that there is activity in all money and financial markets. The…


The Irish referendum, as seen from Madrid: don’t be trouble, get in!

MADRID | While in Spain the formalities for the approval of the European Fiscal Treaty that was agreed last month by 25 countries of the EU are being carried out virtually unnoticed, Ireland announced February 29 that it will submit the matter to referendum. Despite this display of democracy, it is precisely just a display. Under no circumstances would Dublin’s ‘No’ paralyse the entry into force of the pact because it…