World politics

Belt and Road at five years

Global trends in countries’ perceptions of Belt and Road Initiative

Alicia García Herrero (Natixis) | Almost a decade has passed since President Xi Jinping announced the launch of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), originally titled ‘One Belt One Road’. The BRI has since expanded into one of China’s most important tools for the build-up of soft power and the implementation of its overseas activities (Dadabaev, 2018). Simultaneously, however, the initiative has attracted controversy in the international media, particularly after…


litio chile

Chile, world’s largest producer, to nationalise lithium industry

Alphavalue / Divacons | Chile’s President Gabriel Boric announced the nationalisation of the lithium industry, especially important for electric car batteries. State-owned Codelco will determine investments and exploitation by private companies. Chile is the largest producer of lithium. While it is claimed that this will not affect current contracts, it is a stark reminder of the insecurities for mining companies, and not only in Chile.


Euro sculpture

Swiss people on average salary earn €1 million in 15 years, Nigerians need 500

Analysts at Picodi.com have counted how many years it would take people living in different countries and earning the average national salary to earn €1 million. The analysis shows that if we add up all the net payments received by an average employee, a resident of Switzerland will earn his first million euros the fastest: in 15 years and two months, while in Singapore the time is 18 years and…


Spain USA relations

Mild recession in the United States this year

Santander | It is one of the first headlines from last night’s FOMC minutes. Fed staff members go from assigning a near 50% probability, to now forecasting a mild recession. With the Fed also nearing the end of the cycle, it is no surprise that some dissenting voices are beginning to appear, opening the door to new bouts of volatility that have not favoured the credit market (MOVE/Main correlation of…


Lula

Will Lula find his El Dorado in China?

Alicia García Herrero (Natixis) | Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is currently in Beijing with a huge official and business delegation. His goals are clear: first and foremost, bringing growth opportunities to Brazil, whose economy has been battered by the Covid pandemic. Brazilian exports of commodities into China have ballooned since Beijing’s fiscal binge in 2008 that led to pent-up demand for commodities. More recently, Brazil’s large lithium reserves,…


china blues 1

Li Keqiang’s last Two Sessions

Alicia García Herrero (Natixis) | China’s so-called Two Sessions, the country’s most important annual political gathering, marked a transition this year. Held in early March, it included the final work report – or summary of government business – delivered by outgoing Prime Minister, Li Keqiang, who after two five-year terms as China’s prime minister, handed over to Li Qiang. Against this backdrop, Li Keqiang’s 2023 work report was blissfully short,…


Xi Jinping

China’s 2023 Government Work Report: Safe growth target contrasts with bold employment objective

Alicia García Herrero (Natixis) | Against the backdrop of the recent reopening after three years of zero-Covid policies, the Chinese government, in the last government report of Prime Minister Li Keqiang during the Two Sessions, has set a GDP growth target of around 5% in 2023. Such a target is lower than our growth forecast of 5.5% for 2023, and lower than last year’s government target (5.5%). This is somewhat…


Russian Oil Rig

Russia may be using oil as weapon in economic war: production to be cut by some 500,000 bpd

Link Securities | The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported on Friday that Russia’s government had that day announced that it plans to cut its oil production by about 500,000 barrels per day, or about 5 percent, starting next month, in a move it said was in response to Western sanctions. The newspaper notes that Friday’s move is the first in which Russia telegraphed a specific response to oil markets to…


sustainability green planet

29 sustainability taxonomies in development worldwide

F. Rodríguez| According to the conservation organisation World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF) and the think tank Climate & Company, the European taxonomy is one of 29 being developed around the world, 14 of them, including that of the EU, within the group of G20 countries: Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Russia, South Africa, South Korea, Turkey and the United Kingdom. Its report last year, When finance…


2018 Brazil elections are taking place in a particularly challenging environment

Santander, Telefónica, Iberdrola, Aena and Mapfre, Spanish companies most exposed to institutional instability in Brazil

Alphavalue /Divacons | The current political instability in Brazil could harm Spanish companies with an interest in the country. The police have regained control of Congress, the presidential palace, and the Supreme Court after the violent invasion carried out by supporters of Jair Bolsonaro. However, and despite the fact that Bolsonaro has distanced himself from the actions of the protestors, the political tension continues. Among the Spanish companies most exposed…