Norbolsa| The ECB is preparing to send a letter to Italy with objections concerning the windfall profits tax, since, according to sources, the tax was announced without first informing the Bank of Italy or the ECB, as they are supposed to do according to EU rules. In this letter, the monetary authority will report on the dangers that this tax may have for the Italian economy.
Link Securities| According to the European Central Bank’s (ECB) bank lending survey published on Tuesday, 2Q2023 saw a record fall in demand for corporate loans to its lowest level since the survey began in 2003. According to banks in the region, credit conditions tightened more than expected in the quarter under review. Banks also tightened conditions and terms further in 2Q2023 The survey also reported that the net tightening since…
The year-on-year inflation rate in the euro zone fell six tenths in June compared to the previous month, reaching 5.5%, compared to 6.1% in May, which is the lowest increase in prices since January 2022, according to preliminary data published Friday by Eurostat. The moderation in the rise in prices in June is mainly due to the 5.6% fall in the cost of energy, compared with the 1.8% drop in…
Link Securities | According to elEconomista.es on Tuesday, the president of the European Central Bank (ECB), Christine Lagarde, said in her opening speech at the central bank forum in Sintra (Portugal) that the ECB will probably not be able to declare the end of its historic cycle of interest rate hikes any time soon. In that sense, Lagarde said that it is unlikely that in the near future the central…
Banca March: The ECB followed the script and at Thursday’s meeting increased the price of money once again, raising all its interest rates by 25 b.p., bringing the benchmark rate to 4% and the deposit rate to 3.5%. However, the most relevant aspect was economic expectations and clues as to the monetary authority’s future moves. In these sections, it should be noted that the ECB lowered its GDP growth forecasts…
Peter Goves (MFS) | This was as guided at the last meeting and is largely due to inflation projections being “too high for too long”. On QT, the policy was extended (again, as widely telegraphed) across all APP from July 2023. EGB spreads remain relatively tight and continue to exhibit relatively low volatility. There were minor changes to the forecasts which show medium term inflation at 2.2% (in 2025, +0.1ppt)….
Jeremy Cunningham, Investment Director, Fixed Income at Capital Group| The European Central Bank (ECB) will face an even more challenging policy environment in 2023. Core inflation appears to have already peaked in the major European economies and should continue to fall as the effects of last year’s sharp increases in energy prices fade. However, underlying inflationary pressures are rising. Higher energy prices are being passed through to a wide range…
Banca March| The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to see “vulnerability” in the markets given the new interest rate scenario, which in its opinion poses higher financing costs for companies and households that could trigger a liquidity crisis, given the need for massive asset sales in a hypothetical panic scenario. This vulnerability would be concentrated above all in real estate funds and in the debt market, this being one of…
Link Securities | European Central Bank (ECB) chief economist, Ireland’s Philip Lane, said in a recent speech that there is still plenty of momentum in food prices and core inflation. He also noted that real wages have fallen as inflation has outpaced wages in recent years, but that he believes real wages will recover in the coming years. In this regard, Lane said that he sees wage inflation peaking this…
Annalisa Piazza (MFS IM) | The ECB announced today its decision to hike policy rates by 25bp after hiking by 50bp at its March meeting. Inflation is high and pushing it down to its 2% target in the medium term remains the ECB top priority. However, a slower pace of hiking was not a surprise as current levels of rates are already in restrictive territory and the economic picture for…